090
FXUS62 KFFC 010607 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A BRIEF
TORNADO. THIS QLCS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON THIS
EVENING, USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT
OVERNIGHT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT,
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY ONCE THE QLCS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
CULVER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG, PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PROGGED TO NOSE ITS WAY WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, ITS CENTER SETTING UP RESIDENCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
MULTI-DAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME TO DEVELOP,
LINGERING UNTIL A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION NUDGES THE HIGH BACK OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE RELEGATED TO AREAS ON THE
NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE (PORTIONS OF NORTH AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA), WHERE ISENTROPICALLY-FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW,
AND SUBSIDENCE TO DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. ON WEDNESDAY, ONE OF THESE
RIDGE-RIDERS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION, AND A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK IS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA TO CAPTURE THIS. BEST KINEMATICS
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT GIVEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, THE THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL BE THERE IF STORMS DO FORM.
THE BIG TICKET ITEM WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE AVERAGE) RIDGING. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S FOR ALL BUT THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA (REMAINING IN
THE IN THE UPPER-60S TO 70S), AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO
UNTIL SATURDAY, WHEN WE PEAK IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S (!), 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. NOTABLY, RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES (ATL, AHN, CSG, MCN) RANGE
FROM 85 TO 91 DEGREES BETWEEN APRIL 2ND (WEDNESDAY) AND APRIL 5TH
(SATURDAY) -- IF TRENDS CONTINUE, SOME OF THESE MAY BE BROKEN OR
EVEN EXCEEDED BY SEVERAL DEGREES. AN IMPORTANT CAVEAT TO THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST: THE OFFICIAL, DETERMINISTIC NBM
FORECAST IS CURRENTLY UTILIZING THE 25TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLE VALUE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND A VALUE THAT IS ACTUALLY BELOW
THE 25TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLE VALUE (CLOSER TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE)
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE (IF NOT LIKELY) THAT FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD TOWARD THE 50TH PERCENTILE VALUE, AND
POTENTIALLY HIGHER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FEATURES AT PLAY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING MESSAGED. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT RECORDS RELEVANT TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
EXPECT SCT/BKN MVFR CLOUDS AT ATL, FTY, AND RYY (WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT PDK) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE
ORGANIZED DECK OF IFR/LIFR CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA, JUST SOUTH OF CSG AND MCN. EXPECTING REDUCED VSBY
(MVFR/IFR) TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AROUND MID-MORNING WITH JUST CIRRUS
PASSING OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS
ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE, FURTHER SLACKENING AND
BECOMING VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AROUND 16Z-18Z. AT ATL, WINDS MAY
BECOME DUE S TO SSE AS EARLY AS 20Z-22Z, WITH SOLIDLY SSE WINDS BY
AROUND 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CIGS AND
VSBY, AS WELL AS WIND TRENDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 47 75 54 79 / 30 0 10 30
ATLANTA 47 77 58 83 / 30 0 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 38 72 49 69 / 20 0 10 30
CARTERSVILLE 42 75 54 83 / 20 0 10 20
COLUMBUS 49 80 60 87 / 30 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 46 74 54 74 / 30 0 10 30
MACON 50 80 59 87 / 30 0 10 10
ROME 42 75 54 83 / 20 0 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 44 78 56 84 / 30 0 10 10
VIDALIA 60 83 62 88 / 20 0 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...MARTIN
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