014
FXUS62 KFFC 010835
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
435 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 417 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
- CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS RETURNS AROUND
MIDWEEK, GENERALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE IS ON TAP TODAY AFTER THE ACTIVE WEATHER
YESTERDAY (NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND A FEW
TORNADO WARNINGS). A COLD FRONT (AHEAD OF WHICH THE QLCS DEVELOPED
YESTERDAY) IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA, FROM
JUST SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO JUST SOUTH OF MACON TO AUGUSTA. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
GENERAL AREA UNTIL AROUND 10 AM THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE, COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OH RIVER VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING, GIVING WAY TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT THAT ENOUGH HEATING WILL OCCUR FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE, WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER (AND
POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH (IF NOT
ALL) OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND RESULTING IN WARM OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO THE 60S AND PWATS IN THE 1.2-1.4 INCH
RANGE TOMORROW. HREF MEAN MUCAPE PEAKS BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, WITH HREF MEAN SURFACE TO 500 MB BULK SHEAR
JUST SHY OF 30 KTS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, HOWEVER, ARE PROGGED TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE (~6.5 C/KM OR
LESS) DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, THE HREF
SUGGESTS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PUTTING ALL THESE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW. A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE NORTHEAST GEORGIA, WHERE SOMETHING OF A COLD
AIR DAMMING "WEDGE" COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER (IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S).
TOMORROW IS SHAPING UP TO BE BREEZY, IF NOT GUSTY, ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA AS FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES
IN ALOFT. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 MPH AND
GUSTS WILL BE 20-30 MPH. WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS AND GUSTS DO NOT MEET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON MODEL TRENDS.
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK. NEAR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS
DRIVEN BY AN IMPRESSIVE ~4 SIGMA 500MB RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
(FOR THOSE OF YOU INTERESTED, THAT'S A 0.0063% CHANCE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). A LITTLE TASTE OF THE SUMMER-TIME DOOM RIDGE. HIGHS
PEAK FRIDAY WITH MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH GA FLIRTING WITH 90
DEGREES. ALL CLIMATE SITES HAVE RECORDS OF 88 TO 91 DEGREES
THROUGH THE 6TH. IT LIKELY WON'T BE A DRY HEAT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MEAN IT COULD ALSO BE STICKY (A LITTLE TASTE
OF SUMMER). PWATS THURSDAY ONWARD HOLD AT OR ABOVE 1", SO NOW IS
THE TIME TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO STAY COOL.
WHILE THE MAIN JET SUPPORT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH, LOW END POPS
REMAIN ACROSS NORTH GA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANY
SHORTWAVE WHICH RIDES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CLIPS OUR AREA
COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN IN SPITE OF THE SFC HIGH. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND HEAT, AS WELL AS BULK SHEAR AROUND 30
KTS, SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME STRONG. THIS, OF
COURSE, IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORMS BEING ABLE TO FORM IN THE
FIRST PLACE. SUNDAY MORNING SEES OUR NEXT CHANCE TO REALLY COOL
OFF, AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR THE INCOMING -2.4
SIGMA TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SWING
DRASTICALLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S AND LOWS TO
THE 40S AND 50S. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO COME
WITH THE FRONT, AND GIVEN PWATS OF OVER 1.5", IT COULD BE A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN.
SM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
EXPECT SCT/BKN MVFR CLOUDS AT ATL, FTY, AND RYY (WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT PDK) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE
ORGANIZED DECK OF IFR/LIFR CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA, JUST SOUTH OF CSG AND MCN. EXPECTING REDUCED VSBY
(MVFR/IFR) TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AROUND MID-MORNING WITH JUST CIRRUS
PASSING OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS
ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE, FURTHER SLACKENING AND
BECOMING VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AROUND 16Z-18Z. AT ATL, WINDS MAY
BECOME DUE S TO SSE AS EARLY AS 20Z-22Z, WITH SOLIDLY SSE WINDS BY
AROUND 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CIGS AND
VSBY, AS WELL AS WIND TRENDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 54 79 64 / 0 10 30 30
ATLANTA 77 58 83 67 / 0 10 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 72 49 69 59 / 0 10 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 75 54 83 63 / 0 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 80 60 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 74 54 74 64 / 0 10 30 30
MACON 80 59 87 66 / 0 10 10 10
ROME 75 54 83 64 / 0 10 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 78 56 84 64 / 0 10 10 10
VIDALIA 83 62 88 68 / 0 10 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...MARTIN
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