922
FXUS62 KFFC 012341
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
4/1 SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY TODAY
- WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM
WILL LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BEING NUDGED
GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
NOSE ONSHORE. AS A SWATH OF MUCH DRIER AIR TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEAST,
EXPECT TODAY TO BE VERY WARM AND PLEASANT, WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AND HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MOVING INTO TOMORROW, A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FLEETING SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PERIOD OF BRIEF COLD AIR
DAMMING (SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD) WILL MAKE FOR RATHER
DREARY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ATLANTA
METRO. NORTHWEST GEORGIA IS CLIPPED BY A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
RATHER CONDITIONAL, DEPENDENT UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WEDGE
AIRMASS AND SUBSEQUENT BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK. BEST KINEMATICS
OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY ON IN THE DAY (PRE-NOON) WHEN CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO BE THICKEST, LEAVING BEHIND ONLY SCANT FORCING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON (15-25 KTS OF SHEAR AT 925MB). HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
70% OR GREATER CHANCES OF SEEING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 1000 J/KG -- OR MORE -- FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, NOTABLY EXCLUDING MUCH OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA, WHICH IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE UPDRAFT OR
TWO. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MANAGE TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF CONCERN WOULD
BE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST.
BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHEST GUSTS
SKEWED TO THE NORTH AND WEST, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR NOW, GUSTS LOOK TO STAY IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE FOR ALL BUT THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA, AND THUS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT LOWS TO BE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT, DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEDGE AIRMASS: IN THE MID-60S
TO 70S FOR POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF ATLANTA, AND IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90 EVERYWHERE ELSE -- 12-18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.
96
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY WARM TO RECORD BREAKING HEAT THROUGH SATURDAY:
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
AN IMPRESSIVE 3 TO 4 SIGMA 500 MB MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS
UP OVER THE REGION, EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE-850MB RIDGING WILL BE PARKED TO THE
EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH STOUT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS PUMPING WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS GEORGIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S THURSDAY, PEAKING ON FRIDAY
WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON
SATURDAY. THESE TEMPS ARE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, ONLY DROPPING
TO THE 60S EACH NIGHT. ALL CLIMATE SITES COULD SEE RECORD
BREAKING MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES:
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL
START TO KICK OUT THE DOME OF HEAT, AND BRING GEORGIA ITS NEXT
SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY, AND BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR INITIATING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CULVER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
MARINE LAYER MAKING IT ONSHORE OF SE GA. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK
WEDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE. DO EXPECT LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE WEDGE, BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HEIGHT
AND TIMING. IF THOSE MARINE CIGS MAKE IT ALL THE WAY UP TO ATL,
CIGS COULD BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WINDS MAY BE UP TOO
MUCH FOR LOW VSBYS, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 3SM-5SM IS PRETTY HIGH.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE AND GUSTY TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 56 78 64 86 / 20 50 40 20
ATLANTA 61 84 66 88 / 10 30 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 51 66 60 81 / 20 40 40 40
CARTERSVILLE 57 83 64 89 / 10 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 63 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 57 71 64 85 / 20 40 40 20
MACON 61 88 66 89 / 0 30 10 0
ROME 56 86 64 89 / 10 20 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 58 86 64 88 / 10 20 10 10
VIDALIA 64 88 67 90 / 0 30 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
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