572
FXUS62 KFFC 020842
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
442 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 421 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF MID-LEVEL
AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, ALONG WITH A
DEFINED MARINE LAYER PUSHING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF.
THIS AIR MASS IS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND
WILL PUSH IN FROM THE DUE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS AIR MASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY 200- TO 400-FOOT CLOUD CEILINGS AS WELL AS AREAS
OF FOG (SOME DENSE -- LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY). AT
THIS TIME, EXPECT THAT FOG WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THIS
MARINE LAYER -- AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS --
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SLOW SCATTERING-OUT OF CLOUD COVER MAY
HAMPER SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA, WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST.
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY REACH THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AS A RESULT, WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AT MOST. IF ENOUGH CLEARING
OCCURS, MUCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IS LIKELY, WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME STRONG UPDRAFTS. THAT SAID, HREF-PROGGED SURFACE TO 500 MB
BULK SHEAR IS 30 KTS AT MOST, MAINLY OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 6.5-7.0 C/KM AT MOST,
THOUGH HI-RES MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DCAPE AS HIGH AS
~900 J/KG. PUTTING THESE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER, A STORM OR TWO
COULD BE STRONG (POSSIBLY SEVERE) WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AS CLOUD COVER CLEARS, GENERALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER
SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S.
TODAY WILL BREEZY, IF NOT GUSTY, ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES IN ALOFT OVER NORTH AND WEST
GEORGIA. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA, SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS WILL BE 20-30 MPH.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. ASIDE FROM MOUNTAIN RIDGELINES, WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS.
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TOMORROW (THURSDAY). LIKE TODAY,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK OVERALL UNIMPRESSIVE AND HREF MEAN
MUCAPE IS 500-1500 J/KG. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA,
WHERE 30-40 KTS OF SURFACE TO 500 MB BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT.
TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AT 90 ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A
STRONG, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SURPRISINGLY, WITH
HIGHER RES MODELS COMING INTO FOCUS HAS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH SOME DEEPER
DIGGING, THIS COULD BE DUE TO SEVERAL IMPORTANT FACTORS. 1ST, IS
THE HI-RES MODELS' ABILITY TO REALIZE THE LARGE RIDGE WITHIN THE
DOMAIN SPACE (THE SIZE AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE MAY STRETCH
OUTSIDE OF THE DOMAIN AND CAUSE ISSUES THERE). 2ND, MODELS ARE
DEPICTING LARGE VARIATIONS IN THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER FROM
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. 3RD, THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO UPSTREAM CONDITIONS FOR NEAR SURFACE FLOW. THE HOTTEST
RUNNING MODELS ALL SEEM TO BE PULLING AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE SOME OF THE COOLER BRING THE SFC HIGH FAR
ENOUGH WESTWARD TO BRING AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF. WHAT THIS MEANS
FOR US IS MODEL HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD OVER THE ATL METRO OF UP
TO 10 DEGREES (MOSTLY ON SUNDAY WITH INCOMING PRECIP). GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TO CHALLENGE RECORD MAX TEMPS AT ALL CLIMATE SITES, THE
QUESTION BECOMES WHAT IS MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME, WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TOWARD THE MEAN NBM OUTCOME RATHER THAN JUST THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM.
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, OUR NEXT REAL CHANCE COMES BACK IN
THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH A ROBUST TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CONUS HELPING TO MOVE THE RIDGE ALONG. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
TO THE 60S BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
THE MARINE LAYER IS PUSHING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF,
CHARACTERIZED BY IFR/LIFR CIGS. EXPECT THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
REACH MCN AND CSG AROUND 10Z AND THE ATL AREA AND AHN AROUND 12Z.
LOW VSBY MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL, BUT THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF WIDESPREAD BR/FG IS UNCERTAIN. CLOUD COVER
WILL ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS ~4 KFT REMAINING. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SSE AT
8-13 KTS AND GUSTS OF 18-23 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT FOR WINDS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 78 64 85 64 / 30 30 20 0
ATLANTA 83 66 86 66 / 20 10 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 69 60 79 60 / 30 30 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 83 64 88 64 / 20 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 87 65 89 64 / 10 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 73 64 84 64 / 30 30 20 0
MACON 86 66 89 64 / 20 10 0 0
ROME 85 64 88 64 / 20 10 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 84 64 87 63 / 10 10 10 0
VIDALIA 86 67 90 67 / 30 20 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...MARTIN
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