373
FXUS62 KFFC 021846
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
- RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS ACTUALLY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL LIKELY BREAK ALL-TIME DAILY RECORDS.
WEDGE STILL HOLDING STRONG IN FAR NE COUNTIES, BUT OTHERWISE WARM
AND BREEZY TODAY WITH LESS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN EXPECTED SO
FAR. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED ARE IN UPSTATE SC AT THIS TIME.
AS NOTED, MAIN TALKING POINT ARE MAX TEMPS LIKELY BREAKING DAILY
ALL-TIME RECORDS THE NEXT 3 DAYS (THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY) AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY OVER EASTCENTRAL COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON.
AS FOR THURSDAY, MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 90 IN A FEW SPOTS IN
MIDDLE GA. ALREADY SAW SOME SPOTS REACH 90 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WAS A BIT ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE.
WHILE WE WILL NOT REACH ANY OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA USING
THE HEAT INDEX, THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCT THAT IS BASED ON MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURE AND HOW IT COMPARES TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IS INDICATING THAT SOME AREAS OF MIDDLE GA WILL BE IN THE
ORANGE OR MODERATE LEVEL (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THOSE WHO ARE VULNERABLE TO HEAT OR OUTDOOR
WORKERS WITH HEALTH CONCERNS MAY BE AT RISK.
AS FOR PRECIP, EXPECTING EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAN WE HAD
TODAY OVER FAR NE GA TOMORROW. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.
SNELSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
VERY WARM TO RECORD BREAKING HEAT THROUGH SATURDAY:
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
500 MB MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN US,
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE-
850MB RIDGING WILL BE PARKED TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, WITH STOUT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PUMPING WARM AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS GEORGIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THESE TEMPS ARE NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FOLLOW SUIT, ONLY DROPPING TO THE 60S EACH NIGHT. ALL
CLIMATE SITES COULD SEE RECORD BREAKING MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL
MOVE EAST AND START TO KICK OUT THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING ALONG WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR IN
PLACE, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR YET AGAIN.
SPC HAS A 15% SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF GEORGIA ON
SUNDAY. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT, LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CULVER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
IFR CIGS STILL LINGERING IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA INCLUDING KAHN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STRATUS SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH AND CLEARING
FROM THE SOUTH BY 20Z AT KAHN. ELSEWHERE, MVFR BKN CIGS WILL BE
SCT VFR BY 20Z WHERE IT ISN'T ALREADY, INCLUDING ATL METRO
AIRPORTS. EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER
EAST GEORGIA AND SPREAD WEST INTO ATL METRO AIRPORTS AND KMCN
THROUGH 12Z THURS BEFORE SLOWING AND THEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST
THROUGH 16-17Z. NOT CLEAR IF KATL WILL SEE IFR CIGS BUT SHOULD BE
CLOSE. SFC WINDS WILL BE SSE 10-12KTS G20-22KTS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SE 3-8KTS AFTER 00Z THEN COULD BE DUE SOUTH BETWEEN 16-21Z,
EXPECT WINDS TO BE JUST WEST OF DUE SOUTH (190DEG) BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY ON TIMING. ATL PARTNERS SHOULD PREPARE
ACCORDINGLY FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DIRECTIONAL OPERATIONS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SSE VS SSW SFC WINDS 16-21Z THURS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
NELSON
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW.
RECORDS FOR 04-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 88 1934 47 1987 62 2007 26 1992
1974
KATL 87 2012 39 1987 65 1974 29 1992
KCSG 89 1945 50 1915 70 1977 32 1962
KMCN 89 2012 51 1901 69 1977 30 2021
1957
RECORDS FOR 04-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 89 1934 47 2013 66 1999 29 1915
1987
KATL 85 1969 47 2013 66 1880 30 1987
1987 1936
1891
KCSG 89 1934 52 2013 65 2012 33 1987
1918
KMCN 88 1969 50 2013 69 1977 31 1992
1954
1934
RECORDS FOR 04-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 88 2010 47 1964 62 1969 29 1944
1891
KATL 89 1988 36 1891 66 1880 28 1881
KCSG 91 1934 58 1962 65 1969 34 1987
KMCN 91 1988 53 1944 63 2023 32 2000
1969
1922
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 64 86 65 89 / 30 10 0 10
ATLANTA 66 87 67 89 / 20 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 59 80 62 84 / 30 20 10 20
CARTERSVILLE 64 89 64 91 / 10 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 65 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 64 84 66 87 / 30 10 10 10
MACON 65 89 64 90 / 20 0 0 10
ROME 63 88 65 90 / 10 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 63 87 63 89 / 10 0 0 10
VIDALIA 67 91 67 91 / 20 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...SNELSON
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