574
FXUS62 KFFC 291745
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SE GULF STATES FROM
EASTERN MEXICO. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING OVER THE SE US WILL
FLATTEN A BIT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH
TODAY. AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST, IT DOES FILL BY THE TIME IT
CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTH FL PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
MINIMAL POPS FOR TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA, NEAREST THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN GA, CLOSEST TO THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BY FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORED BY LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT NORTH OF THE AREA,
SQUASHING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. STILL, MOST OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY, THOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20. FRIDAY
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY GETS A PUSH INTO THE AREA
COURTESY OF A FOLLOWUP LARGER-SCALE WAVE. GIVEN FORECAST SBCAPE IN
THE REALM OF 1000-1500 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON (NOT ATYPICAL FOR EARLY
MAY), THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED; HOWEVER, A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE THREAT COULD
MANIFEST ON FRIDAY AMID THIS ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
GENERALLY <= 30 KTS SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK, BUT IF
ANY INCREASE IS NOTED AMID A MORE POTENT INDICATED UPPER WAVE A
SEVERE RISK WOULD BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN.
THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY ON SATURDAY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PROGRESSION
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE DRIER, COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
PUSHES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA SATURDAY OR WHETHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER. AT THIS POINT, NBM MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS ACROSS MIDDLE
GEORGIA ON SATURDAY WITH TAPERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FARTHER NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL SPREAD. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS
STILL FAVORED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AMID A POTENTIAL EMERGING
OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN.
RW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SCT OUT OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE MORE
CLOUDS AGAIN WED BUT THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS
WILL TURN OVERNIGHT TO THE SW AND STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 0
ATLANTA 82 65 83 64 / 10 10 20 0
BLAIRSVILLE 78 58 80 58 / 10 10 40 10
CARTERSVILLE 83 62 84 62 / 10 10 30 10
COLUMBUS 84 65 86 64 / 10 10 20 0
GAINESVILLE 80 62 83 63 / 10 0 20 0
MACON 83 61 86 62 / 10 10 10 0
ROME 82 62 84 62 / 10 10 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 83 62 84 61 / 10 10 20 0
VIDALIA 84 61 88 61 / 20 20 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...01
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page