212
FXUS62 KFFC 300225
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS WITH
LOWERING OF POPS FOR PART OF TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LATEST TRENDS
WITH WINDS. OVERALL STILL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. A BERMUDA
LIKE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS KEEPING THIS
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. WITH THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THERE ARE A FEW
BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WITH ONE ACROSS NORTH FL AND ONE OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN AND WE WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVER STORMS
IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DEG OR TWO HIGHER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT AND
WED NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
01
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (AND A
SMALL CHANCE IN CENTRAL GA ON SUNDAY) AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHES
BY AND THROUGH THE AREA.
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
- DRIER AND A BIT COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST:
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE IT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS
REGION ON THURSDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, DEVELOPING AN
INITIAL SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK TO THE NE INTO THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF SURFACE
MOISTURE INTO THE SE THAT WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS TO THE WEST THAT
MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SECONDARY WAVE DIGS OUT CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THAT ENHANCES THE SURFACE LOW, BRINGS IN A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, AND PUSHES A FRONT TOWARDS THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL
AGAIN SURGE INTO THE AREA ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO POP ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
FRONT VERY SLOWLY DRAGS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOME MORE UNCERTAINTY FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA - BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
SOME RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY, AND NOW COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
ON SUNDAY.
TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT SEVERE CHANCES ON FRIDAY, STILL NOT LOOKING
LIKE ANYTHING THAT WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCES, BUT
WON'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. SBCAPE CONTINUES TO LOOK
DECENT, WITH NBM MEAN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA OF 1500+ J/KG AND 90TH
PERCENTILES REACHING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. SO, PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR. FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 25
KTS OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA AND HODOGRAPHS THAT REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE, BUT WILL BE HARD TO HAVE LONGER
MAINTENANCE OF STORMS GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE SEE SOME COOLER, DRIER AIR MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVE
BREAKS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO 2 CUTOFF LOWS AND LARGE
RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, A SET UP THAT IS A CLASSIC
OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WILL WARM
SLOWLY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. EXPECTATION IS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE CWA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AWAY.
LUSK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LACK OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING THE CU FIELD ~3-4KFT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR RAIN. SSE WINDS
SHOULD TURN SOLIDLY SSW BY 10Z AND REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 59 80 61 85 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 64 81 64 85 / 0 0 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 55 74 57 80 / 0 0 0 30
CARTERSVILLE 61 81 61 85 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 65 82 64 86 / 0 0 0 20
GAINESVILLE 60 78 62 84 / 0 0 0 20
MACON 63 82 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
ROME 60 79 61 86 / 0 0 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 62 81 61 85 / 0 0 0 20
VIDALIA 63 82 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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