356
FXUS62 KFFC 301053
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
653 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE US. ACROSS THE SE STATES, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, IT SHOULD FILL LEAVING AN OPEN TROUGH.
THE TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY, SHOULD SHUNT TO THE NE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN, WITH
ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BY LATE THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED TODAY AND
SETTLE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE THURSDAY BUT REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
POPS TODAY AND TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ISOLD TO LOW END
SCATTERED CATEGORIES AND HIGHEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONT. FOR TODAY, LAPSE RATES ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL
BE MODERATELY STEEP DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SURFACE CAPE AVAILABLE.
THERE REALLY ISN'T ANYTHING AT THE SURFACE TO FOCUS CONVECTION
(FRONT STAYS TO THE NORTH), SO ANY LIFT AT THE SURFACE WOULD BE
MESOSCALE IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH GEORGIA.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST (AND ANY LINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT).
THIS WILL BE MY LAST FORECAST PACKAGE AND AFD. IT HAS BEEN AN HONOR
AND A PRIVILEGE TO SERVE THE AMERICAN PUBLIC FOR OVER 30 YEARS.
CHOOSING METEOROLOGY AS A CAREER WAS ONE OF THE BEST THINGS I EVER
COULD HAVE DONE. THE CURRENT GENERATION OF METEOROLOGISTS ARE SOME
OF THE BEST AND BRIGHTEST THAT I HAVE EVER WORKED WITH AND YOU ARE
BEING LEFT IN GOOD HANDS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, PRIMARILY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY
ON FRIDAY.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON FRIDAY, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT, LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TREND OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES IS FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, LEADING TO A MORE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. COVERAGE WILL THUS
BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FORECAST SBCAPE TRENDS HAVE NUDGED HIGHER THE LAST
COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES (PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 2000 J/KG
INCREASING), SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET. SHEAR CONTINUES TO
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, SO
GENERALLY A MORE ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE CONTINUES TO BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION (PARTICULARLY
AMONG ECMWF SOLUTIONS), POPS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD MARKEDLY
FOR SATURDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS CONSIDERABLY MORE LIMITED ON
SATURDAY, SO THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WHILE THERE IS STILL MODEL DISCREPANCY, DRIER AIR IS MORE LIKELY TO
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AMID AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE US WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE MORE PLEASANT -
LARGELY IN THE 50S, THOUGH SOME 40S COULD SNEAK INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA, AND HIGHS WILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
RW
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 035-040 THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE GOING BACK AND FORTH FROM THE
SW SIDE TO THE SE SIDE AND BACK AGAIN. SE SHOULD BE THE
PREDOMINATE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 86 62 84 63 / 10 0 10 30
ATLANTA 84 65 84 65 / 20 10 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 79 59 78 58 / 30 10 40 60
CARTERSVILLE 84 63 85 62 / 20 10 30 50
COLUMBUS 87 64 87 63 / 10 10 10 20
GAINESVILLE 84 62 82 63 / 20 10 20 40
MACON 87 62 87 63 / 10 0 10 10
ROME 84 63 84 62 / 30 10 30 60
PEACHTREE CITY 85 62 84 62 / 20 10 10 30
VIDALIA 88 62 88 63 / 10 0 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
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