971
FXUS62 KFFC 010003
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. A BERMUDA
LIKE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GA COAST IS KEEPING THIS
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING, WITH THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THERE ARE A FEW
STILL A FEW BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION BUT THE MAIN ONE IS ORIENTED
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS AL. THIS BOUNDARY IS KIND OF WRAPPED AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS BRINGING VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO NORTH GA AND EASTERN AL. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS GA DRY, BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THU WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS
IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.
01
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SOME INCREASING CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY NOW AS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HAS CREPT INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
- STILL LOOKING COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK. AGAIN, SOME UNCERTAINTY
HAS CREPT IN AND HOW DRY IT WILL BE, BUT STILL SHOULD BE DRIER THAN
THE END OF THIS WEEK.
FORECAST:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY
OUT OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW, AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
BIFURCATION IN HOW THIS SYSTEM IS HANDLED BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS
ENSEMBLES SUITES. CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE TABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS; HOWEVER, LOCATION, AMOUNT, AND EXTENT MAY BE
IMPACTED BY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS ON THURSDAY THAT STILL MAY BE
ONGOING IN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MEAN ENSEMBLE
MODEL INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES,
SITTING AT AROUND 1500 J/KG INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPACTS OF THE PREVIOUS DAY'S CONVECTION IS SHOWING
IMPACTS IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF CAPE, SHOWING INSTABILITY VALUES
WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA REPRESENTATIVE OF A WORKED OVER
ATMOSPHERE AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING, THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS TO FORM PROVIDED IT IS CLOSER TO THE MEAN FORECAST.
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. MODEL BASED SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 25 KTS OR LESS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THIS WOULD BE ANY COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME EXTENSION OF CONVECTION LIFETIME.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW
DOWN WITHIN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STUFF
AND AGAIN MAY BE IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND REMNANT CLOUD
COVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY/NIGHT'S STORMS. INSTABILITY FORECASTS
ARE LOWER AS WE LOSE SOME OF THE SURFACE FORCING THAT IS DRAWING
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA AND SHEAR ALOFT IS EVEN POORER, SO SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL. THE BIFURCATION WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAPPENS AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS SUITE IS MORE
INCLINED TO PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTH. THIS BRINGS COOLER, DRIER
AIR IN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE EURO SUITE, THE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS A BIT STRONGER AND WE SEE
A STRONGER WAVE BREAK THAT ACTUALLY PINCHES OFF A CUT OFF LOW FROM
THE TROUGH ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE SE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO LINGER, AND PROVIDES A COOLER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
THAT MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS INCLUDED SOME VERY LOW END POP CHANCES GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF GEORGIA.
NO MATTER WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES COOL
A BIT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE LOW 80S IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (AND MAY EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY). LOWS
ARE ALSO COOLER, GETTING INTO THE LOW 50S AND EVEN THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LUSK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE HAS LIMITED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER
GEORGIA TODAY WITH MAINLY ONLY FEW/SCT CU FIELD ~4KFT. SHOULD SEE
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TAKE OVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SSW. TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE CU FIELD FORM
AGAIN AT 3-4KFT WITH A FEW LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A LOW END CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
00Z TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A DECAYING LINE OF STORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 85 63 83 / 0 10 40 50
ATLANTA 65 84 64 81 / 10 10 40 60
BLAIRSVILLE 59 78 57 78 / 10 40 60 70
CARTERSVILLE 63 85 61 82 / 20 20 60 70
COLUMBUS 64 87 64 85 / 10 10 20 40
GAINESVILLE 64 83 63 81 / 10 20 50 60
MACON 62 87 63 86 / 0 10 10 30
ROME 63 85 61 82 / 20 20 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 62 85 62 82 / 10 10 50 60
VIDALIA 60 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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