491
FXUS62 KFFC 010606
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
206 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL AND JUST OFF THE SE COAST
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AS ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
MUCH OF THE MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG A BOUNDARY/PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO
NW GA BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF I-85 MAXIMIZING CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. WITH NO STRONG UPPER SUPPORT TO AID IN THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY MOVEMENT, IT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
SPC HAS INCLUDED A MARGINAL RISK MAINLY FOR NW GA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY, ALONG AND NW OF I85. INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PEAK 1000 TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN
SPOTS...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN SOME GUIDANCE
APPROACHING 7.0 DEG C/KM, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR, HAIL AND SEVERE WIND WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS. OF THE HIRES CAM GUIDANCE, THE 00Z NSSL WRF IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE 00Z HRRR IS A
BIT LACKLUSTER. STILL TIME TO WATCH THE TRENDS, BUT WITH NBM
GUIDANCE CRANKING OUT 70+ POPS FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE WORTH
WATCHING.
30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS REMAIN MORE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON SATURDAY, KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED TO START THE
WEEKEND. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST INSTABILITY REMAINS LOWER
SATURDAY (<1000 J/KG SBCAPE) AMID LIMITED SHEAR, SO SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE MINIMIZED FOR SATURDAY. POPS SHOULD THEN
GENERALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER
REGARDING DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE, WHICH HAD BEEN THE SLOWER
SOLUTION, IS CONSIDERABLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS INDICATING
LIKELY SUNDAY FRONTAL CLEARING EAST OF THE AREA. AS SUCH, POPS HAVE
BEGUN TO TREND DOWNWARD ON SUNDAY, THOUGH WITH SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY NBM POPS DO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANGE TO LOW END CHANCE.
SPEAKING OF COOLER AIR, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN EMERGENT OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL US
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
FAIRLY LOW IN THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN LOW AND CENTRAL
US RIDGE; HOWEVER, IN GENERAL, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMID SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS POINT, HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S LOOK LIKE A FAIR BET - NOT BAD FOR
EARLY MAY.
RW
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
WIND SHIFT TO THE SSW LOOKS TO HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THE CU FIELD TO RETURN DURING THE LATE MORNING
TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE 030 TO 040
RANGE. A BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD THUS THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 AT MOST TAF SITES
WHICH COULD BE AFFECTED BY A STORM IN THE EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 83 62 83 / 0 20 40 50
ATLANTA 65 84 64 82 / 10 10 40 60
BLAIRSVILLE 59 77 58 77 / 10 50 60 70
CARTERSVILLE 63 84 61 82 / 10 30 50 70
COLUMBUS 64 87 63 85 / 10 10 20 50
GAINESVILLE 64 82 62 81 / 0 20 40 60
MACON 62 86 63 87 / 0 10 10 30
ROME 63 84 60 82 / 20 30 50 70
PEACHTREE CITY 62 84 62 82 / 10 10 40 60
VIDALIA 60 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page