868
FXUS62 KFFC 011138
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL AND JUST OFF THE SE COAST
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AS ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
MUCH OF THE MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG A BOUNDARY/PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO
NW GA BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF I-85 MAXIMIZING CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. WITH NO STRONG UPPER SUPPORT TO AID IN THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY MOVEMENT, IT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
SPC HAS INCLUDED A MARGINAL RISK MAINLY FOR NW GA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY, ALONG AND NW OF I85. INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PEAK 1000 TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN
SPOTS...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN SOME GUIDANCE
APPROACHING 7.0 DEG C/KM, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR, HAIL AND SEVERE WIND WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS. OF THE HIRES CAM GUIDANCE, THE 00Z NSSL WRF IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE 00Z HRRR IS A
BIT LACKLUSTER. STILL TIME TO WATCH THE TRENDS, BUT WITH NBM
GUIDANCE CRANKING OUT 70+ POPS FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE WORTH
WATCHING.
30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS REMAIN MORE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON SATURDAY, KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED TO START THE
WEEKEND. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST INSTABILITY REMAINS LOWER
SATURDAY (<1000 J/KG SBCAPE) AMID LIMITED SHEAR, SO SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE MINIMIZED FOR SATURDAY. POPS SHOULD THEN
GENERALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER
REGARDING DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE, WHICH HAD BEEN THE SLOWER
SOLUTION, IS CONSIDERABLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS INDICATING
LIKELY SUNDAY FRONTAL CLEARING EAST OF THE AREA. AS SUCH, POPS HAVE
BEGUN TO TREND DOWNWARD ON SUNDAY, THOUGH WITH SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY NBM POPS DO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANGE TO LOW END CHANCE.
SPEAKING OF COOLER AIR, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN EMERGENT OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL US
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
FAIRLY LOW IN THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN LOW AND CENTRAL
US RIDGE; HOWEVER, IN GENERAL, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMID SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS POINT, HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S LOOK LIKE A FAIR BET - NOT BAD FOR
EARLY MAY.
RW
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS METRO SITES NORTHWARD
INTO N GA DESPITE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT WOULDN'T HAPPEN. ADDED
SHRA TO TAF FOR THE NEAR TERM WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM
AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT. STILL EXPECT CU FIELD 030-040
TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT MAY BE A BIT
DELAYED GIVEN THE OVERCAST START. BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW
LATER TODAY AND INCREASES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. INCLUDED PROB30 AT MOST SITES FOR THE EVENING...AND AGAIN
FOR ATL IN THE AM ON FRIDAY AS SHOWERS MAY GET AN EARLY JUMP ON
THE DAY WITH THE BOUNDARY HANGING OUT IN THE I85 VICINITY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SW OR SSW THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT COULD BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
MIXING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 83 62 83 61 / 20 30 50 40
ATLANTA 84 64 82 64 / 20 40 60 50
BLAIRSVILLE 77 57 77 57 / 50 50 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 84 61 82 61 / 30 40 70 60
COLUMBUS 86 64 85 62 / 10 20 50 30
GAINESVILLE 82 62 81 62 / 30 40 60 50
MACON 86 63 87 63 / 10 20 30 20
ROME 84 60 82 61 / 40 40 70 70
PEACHTREE CITY 84 61 82 61 / 20 40 60 40
VIDALIA 87 64 89 65 / 0 0 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...30
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