962
FXUS62 KFFC 011743
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL AND JUST OFF THE SE COAST
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AS ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
MUCH OF THE MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG A BOUNDARY/PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO
NW GA BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF I-85 MAXIMIZING CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. WITH NO STRONG UPPER SUPPORT TO AID IN THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY MOVEMENT, IT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
SPC HAS INCLUDED A MARGINAL RISK MAINLY FOR NW GA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY, ALONG AND NW OF I85. INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PEAK 1000 TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN
SPOTS...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN SOME GUIDANCE
APPROACHING 7.0 DEG C/KM, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR, HAIL AND SEVERE WIND WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS. OF THE HIRES CAM GUIDANCE, THE 00Z NSSL WRF IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE 00Z HRRR IS A
BIT LACKLUSTER. STILL TIME TO WATCH THE TRENDS, BUT WITH NBM
GUIDANCE CRANKING OUT 70+ POPS FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE WORTH
WATCHING.
30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS REMAIN MORE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON SATURDAY, KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED TO START THE
WEEKEND. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST INSTABILITY REMAINS LOWER
SATURDAY (<1000 J/KG SBCAPE) AMID LIMITED SHEAR, SO SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE MINIMIZED FOR SATURDAY. POPS SHOULD THEN
GENERALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER
REGARDING DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE, WHICH HAD BEEN THE SLOWER
SOLUTION, IS CONSIDERABLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS INDICATING
LIKELY SUNDAY FRONTAL CLEARING EAST OF THE AREA. AS SUCH, POPS HAVE
BEGUN TO TREND DOWNWARD ON SUNDAY, THOUGH WITH SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY NBM POPS DO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANGE TO LOW END CHANCE.
SPEAKING OF COOLER AIR, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN EMERGENT OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL US
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
FAIRLY LOW IN THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN LOW AND CENTRAL
US RIDGE; HOWEVER, IN GENERAL, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMID SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS POINT, HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S LOOK LIKE A FAIR BET - NOT BAD FOR
EARLY MAY.
RW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED EAST AWAY
FROM ALL TAF SITES, THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE STATE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A CU FIELD
BETWEEN 035-050. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS. A PROB30 FOR TSRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FROM 01-05Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 11-15Z. PRECIPITATION WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THOUGH THEY MAY ONCE
AGAIN GET AN EARLY START IN THE MORNING HOURS, WHICH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD, AT
8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND STEADILY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 83 62 83 61 / 30 30 30 30
ATLANTA 84 64 82 64 / 20 50 50 30
BLAIRSVILLE 77 57 77 57 / 60 60 60 70
CARTERSVILLE 84 61 82 61 / 40 60 50 50
COLUMBUS 86 64 85 62 / 10 20 30 10
GAINESVILLE 82 62 81 62 / 50 40 50 40
MACON 86 63 87 63 / 10 10 10 10
ROME 84 60 82 61 / 40 50 50 60
PEACHTREE CITY 84 61 82 61 / 10 40 50 30
VIDALIA 87 64 89 65 / 0 0 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...KING
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