874
FXUS62 KFFC 011834
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
234 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AS THE PERIOD BEGINS, A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH AXIS ADVANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH PATTERN IS POSITIONED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE
TOWARDS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA (MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGHING ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THIS POINT, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO STALL. THE
FRONT WILL THEN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT REMAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO
THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SBCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN NORTH AND WEST
GEORGIA ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 6.5/7.0 C/KM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
CONSIDERING THE COMBINATION OF SBCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
THE RELATIVE ABSENCE OF SHEAR, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT
OCCUR. SPC HAS DIAGNOSED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF
5) RISK IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING, THOUGH ISOLATED PRECIP COULD STILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE
HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON FRIDAY FOR
AREAS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED.
KING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE
ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, MOVING EAST, BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE
OCCURRING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SATURDAY MORNING, AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FORECAST INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MODEST, WITH FORECAST CAPE BEING LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. AS SUCH,
AVERAGE STORM INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THOUGH
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY; LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD STILL SUSTAIN PERSISTING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE
REMAINS A SMALL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA; BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT OR NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY 00Z ON MONDAY (8PM EDT). THE ECMWF
DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE GFS, BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
DECREASING. EITHER WAY, SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER THAN SATURDAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY LIMITED TO
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 60S AND LOW 80S ON MONDAY, WITH ONLY A MODEST
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 60S.
CRS/01
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED EAST AWAY
FROM ALL TAF SITES, THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE STATE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A CU FIELD
BETWEEN 035-050. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS. A PROB30 FOR TSRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FROM 01-05Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 11-15Z. PRECIPITATION WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THOUGH THEY MAY ONCE
AGAIN GET AN EARLY START IN THE MORNING HOURS, WHICH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD, AT
8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND STEADILY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 61 83 61 81 / 30 30 30 70
ATLANTA 63 82 64 76 / 40 50 30 80
BLAIRSVILLE 57 78 57 72 / 50 60 70 90
CARTERSVILLE 60 83 61 75 / 50 50 50 90
COLUMBUS 63 86 62 80 / 20 30 10 70
GAINESVILLE 62 81 61 77 / 30 50 40 80
MACON 62 87 63 83 / 10 10 10 60
ROME 60 83 61 75 / 40 50 60 90
PEACHTREE CITY 61 83 60 77 / 40 50 30 80
VIDALIA 64 89 65 88 / 10 10 0 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...KING
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