250
FXUS62 KFFC 020024
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
824 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AS THE PERIOD BEGINS, A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH AXIS ADVANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH PATTERN IS POSITIONED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE
TOWARDS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA (MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGHING ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THIS POINT, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO STALL. THE
FRONT WILL THEN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT REMAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO
THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SBCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN NORTH AND WEST
GEORGIA ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 6.5/7.0 C/KM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
CONSIDERING THE COMBINATION OF SBCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
THE RELATIVE ABSENCE OF SHEAR, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT
OCCUR. SPC HAS DIAGNOSED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF
5) RISK IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING, THOUGH ISOLATED PRECIP COULD STILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE
HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON FRIDAY FOR
AREAS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED.
KING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE
ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, MOVING EAST, BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE
OCCURRING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SATURDAY MORNING, AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FORECAST INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MODEST, WITH FORECAST CAPE BEING LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. AS SUCH,
AVERAGE STORM INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THOUGH
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY; LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD STILL SUSTAIN PERSISTING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE
REMAINS A SMALL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA; BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT OR NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY 00Z ON MONDAY (8PM EDT). THE ECMWF
DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE GFS, BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
DECREASING. EITHER WAY, SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER THAN SATURDAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY LIMITED TO
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 60S AND LOW 80S ON MONDAY, WITH ONLY A MODEST
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 60S.
CRS/01
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THEN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z FRIDAY AND 06Z SATURDAY. IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND
00Z FRIDAY. PATCHY MVFR (1000-2500 FT AGL) CEILINGS MAY IMPACT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z FRIDAY, THEN A MIX OF CEILINGS IN
THE 2500 TO 4500 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 2 TO 8 KT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING OUTLOOK.
ALBRIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 63 83 61 83 / 0 30 10 30
ATLANTA 68 83 63 82 / 30 20 10 50
BLAIRSVILLE 62 77 57 78 / 30 60 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 67 83 60 83 / 30 40 30 40
COLUMBUS 68 86 63 86 / 0 20 10 20
GAINESVILLE 65 81 62 81 / 0 50 50 50
MACON 65 86 62 87 / 0 10 10 10
ROME 66 83 60 83 / 0 40 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 65 84 61 83 / 0 10 10 40
VIDALIA 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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