064
FXUS62 KFFC 020918
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
518 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AT A GLANCE:
- A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS;
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
- RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL.
OUR COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH LINGERING RAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
BUILD SOME IMPRESSIVE SBCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 2000+ J/KG. THE
SHEER AXIS SEEMS TO COME THROUGH NW GEORGIA WITH BULK SHEER VALUES
OF AROUND 40KTS. ONCE IT PUSHES FURTHER INTO GEORGIA HOWEVER MOST OF
THE MODELS HAVE IT LOSING STEAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE METRO
AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WIND AGAIN, BUT GIVEN THAT WE'RE
STILL TECHNICALLY IN SPRING THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE TO SEE
SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGEST OF THUNDERSTORMS. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON OUR LAPSE RATES AND THE FRONTS TIMING. THE LATER THE PUSH,
THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO DEVELOP MORE INSTABILITY.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING UP TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN TO SOME AREAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE RAIN SO IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS ON SATURDAY,
JUST KEEP AN EYE ON ON THE FORECAST AND CONSIDER A BACKUP PLAN.
VAUGHN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. AT THE SURFACE,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER PER LATEST GUIDANCE SO
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE FRONT PROGRESSES, THERE MAY BE LINGERING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST-CENTRAL GA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING. THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SURFACE FRONT LARGELY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY. AGAIN, DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR THE FRONT PROGRESSIONS FAR EAST-CENTRAL GA MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN LOOKS
TO SET UP -- RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND A LOW ON EITHER SIDE --
WHICH WILL PROMOTE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE EASTERN LOW AND CENTRAL RIDGE SET UP BUT
AS A GENERAL RULE OF THUMB WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH
SET UP MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND MIDWEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, THOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 30-
35% LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FORECAST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
AND GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST LOWS DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY
MORNING BECOMING MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY
MIDWEEK.
07
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
LOW MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER 15Z. CIGS WILL RISE
INTO A BKN CU FIELD BEFORE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO FIRE OFF
AFTER 20Z. SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PROB30 AS IT'S MADE INTO A TEMPO LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SE AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CIGS AND WX
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 84 61 82 59 / 30 20 60 80
ATLANTA 84 63 79 59 / 40 20 80 80
BLAIRSVILLE 79 57 74 53 / 60 60 90 80
CARTERSVILLE 85 60 77 54 / 50 40 90 80
COLUMBUS 87 62 81 60 / 20 0 70 80
GAINESVILLE 82 61 79 58 / 50 30 80 80
MACON 88 63 85 61 / 10 10 50 70
ROME 84 60 75 54 / 60 50 90 70
PEACHTREE CITY 85 61 79 57 / 40 20 70 80
VIDALIA 89 65 88 65 / 10 0 40 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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