448
FXUS62 KFFC 021809
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AT A GLANCE:
- A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS;
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
- RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL.
OUR COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH LINGERING RAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
BUILD SOME IMPRESSIVE SBCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 2000+ J/KG. THE
SHEER AXIS SEEMS TO COME THROUGH NW GEORGIA WITH BULK SHEER VALUES
OF AROUND 40KTS. ONCE IT PUSHES FURTHER INTO GEORGIA HOWEVER MOST OF
THE MODELS HAVE IT LOSING STEAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE METRO
AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WIND AGAIN, BUT GIVEN THAT WE'RE
STILL TECHNICALLY IN SPRING THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE TO SEE
SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGEST OF THUNDERSTORMS. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON OUR LAPSE RATES AND THE FRONTS TIMING. THE LATER THE PUSH,
THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO DEVELOP MORE INSTABILITY.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING UP TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN TO SOME AREAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE RAIN SO IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS ON SATURDAY,
JUST KEEP AN EYE ON ON THE FORECAST AND CONSIDER A BACKUP PLAN.
VAUGHN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. AT THE SURFACE,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER PER LATEST GUIDANCE SO
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE FRONT PROGRESSES, THERE MAY BE LINGERING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST-CENTRAL GA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING. THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SURFACE FRONT LARGELY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY. AGAIN, DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR THE FRONT PROGRESSIONS FAR EAST-CENTRAL GA MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN LOOKS
TO SET UP -- RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND A LOW ON EITHER SIDE --
WHICH WILL PROMOTE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE EASTERN LOW AND CENTRAL RIDGE SET UP BUT
AS A GENERAL RULE OF THUMB WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH
SET UP MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND MIDWEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, THOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 30-
35% LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FORECAST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
AND GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST LOWS DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY
MORNING BECOMING MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY
MIDWEEK.
07
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF I-20,
INCLUDING AROUND RYY AND AHN. A TEMPO FOR TSRA IS ALSO BEING
CARRIED AT ATL FROM 20-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CU
FIELD BETWEEN 035-050. AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES CLOSER TO NORTH
GA, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BETWEEN 00-06Z, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WX TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 84 61 80 57 / 40 20 70 80
ATLANTA 85 62 76 57 / 40 30 90 70
BLAIRSVILLE 79 56 71 50 / 70 70 90 80
CARTERSVILLE 83 59 74 52 / 60 50 90 60
COLUMBUS 88 62 79 58 / 10 10 80 80
GAINESVILLE 83 61 76 56 / 60 40 80 80
MACON 88 62 84 60 / 10 10 60 90
ROME 84 59 74 52 / 70 60 90 50
PEACHTREE CITY 85 59 77 54 / 40 20 80 80
VIDALIA 89 65 88 64 / 10 10 50 80
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...KING
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