998
FXUS62 KFFC 021905
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH OF I-85.
AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FROM SPC REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA, IN DADE, WALKER, CHATTOOGA, FLOYD,
AND CATOOSA COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA, ROUGHLY TO THE NORTH OF I-20. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THESE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, SBCAPE VALUES WILL LARGELY PEAK BETWEEN 2000-
3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5-7
C/KM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA, THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH ALREADY OBSERVED.
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO WEST TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AS AN ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. WITH STRONG SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX. FURTHERMORE, HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES 30-35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG WITH 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY BETWEEN 100-150 M2/S2 ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
HOURS AROUND SUNSET. HERE, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IF ALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN ALIGNMENT THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ADVANCE INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE IT PUSHES FURTHER INTO GEORGIA,
IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH, MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE IT LOSING STEAM AND STALLING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
METRO ATLANTA AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FORECAST BY THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE 70S ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 AND IN THE 80S TO THE SOUTH
WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER AND A LATER ONSET TIME FOR PRECIPITATION. A
FEW STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1-2
INCHES ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT OCCUR. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL THEN BE PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
KING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING NE ACROSS THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUN
THROUGH TUE. AT THE SURFACE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER PER
LATEST GUIDANCE SO DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE FRONT PROGRESSES, THERE
MAY BE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL GA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING. THE UPPER LOW
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SURFACE FRONT
LARGELY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY. AGAIN, DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR THE FRONT PROGRESSIONS FAR EAST-CENTRAL GA MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN LOOKS
TO SET UP -- RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND A LOW ON EITHER SIDE --
WHICH WILL PROMOTE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE EASTERN LOW AND CENTRAL RIDGE SET UP BUT
AS A GENERAL RULE OF THUMB WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH
SET UP MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND MIDWEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, THOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
AND GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST LOWS DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY
MORNING BECOMING MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY
MIDWEEK.
01
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF I-20,
INCLUDING AROUND RYY AND AHN. A TEMPO FOR TSRA IS ALSO BEING
CARRIED AT ATL FROM 20-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CU
FIELD BETWEEN 035-050. AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES CLOSER TO NORTH
GA, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BETWEEN 00-06Z, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WX TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 61 80 57 76 / 20 70 80 20
ATLANTA 62 76 57 74 / 30 90 70 10
BLAIRSVILLE 56 71 50 69 / 70 90 80 20
CARTERSVILLE 59 74 52 72 / 50 90 60 10
COLUMBUS 62 79 58 77 / 10 80 80 10
GAINESVILLE 61 76 56 72 / 40 80 80 10
MACON 62 84 60 79 / 10 60 90 20
ROME 59 74 52 72 / 60 90 50 10
PEACHTREE CITY 59 77 54 75 / 20 80 80 10
VIDALIA 65 88 64 82 / 10 50 80 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...KING
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