628
FXUS62 KFFC 030549
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH OF I-85.
AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FROM SPC REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA, IN DADE, WALKER, CHATTOOGA,
FLOYD, AND CATOOSA COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA, ROUGHLY TO THE NORTH OF I-20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THESE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, SBCAPE VALUES WILL LARGELY
PEAK BETWEEN 2000- 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA, THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, WITH HAIL UP TO 1
INCH ALREADY OBSERVED.
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO WEST TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AS AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. WITH
STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KTS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX.
FURTHERMORE, HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES 30-35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR
ALONG WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY BETWEEN 100-150 M2/S2
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNSET. HERE, A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF ALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN ALIGNMENT
THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ADVANCE INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE IT PUSHES FURTHER INTO
GEORGIA, IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. AS
SUCH, MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE IT LOSING STEAM AND STALLING BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE METRO ATLANTA AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FORECAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 70S ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-85 AND IN THE 80S TO THE SOUTH WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER AND A
LATER ONSET TIME FOR PRECIPITATION. A FEW STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) HAS
BEEN DIAGNOSED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT OCCUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
THEN BE PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
KING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE SLOWLY MOVING NE ACROSS THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUN
THROUGH TUE. AT THE SURFACE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER PER LATEST GUIDANCE SO DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE FRONT
PROGRESSES, THERE MAY BE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL GA. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING. THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE SURFACE FRONT LARGELY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY. AGAIN, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE FRONT PROGRESSIONS FAR
EAST-CENTRAL GA MAY STILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN LOOKS
TO SET UP -- RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND A LOW ON EITHER
SIDE -- WHICH WILL PROMOTE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE EASTERN LOW AND
CENTRAL RIDGE SET UP BUT AS A GENERAL RULE OF THUMB WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH SET UP MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND MIDWEEK MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE, THOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S AND GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST LOWS DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S
MONDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY
MIDWEEK.
01
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TSRA HAS COME TO AN END FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AN APPROACHING FRONT
WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHRA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
AFTER WHICH, CONDITIONS SCT OUT TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO DUE SOUTH WITH A FEW OBS ON
THE EAST SIDE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE GOING BACK TO THE WEST SIDE
AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A PROB30 BUT TIMING WILL LIKELY
CHANGE IN THE COMING TAF CYCLES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS AND WX
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 61 80 57 76 / 20 80 80 0
ATLANTA 62 76 57 74 / 30 90 70 0
BLAIRSVILLE 56 71 50 69 / 70 100 80 20
CARTERSVILLE 59 74 52 72 / 50 90 50 0
COLUMBUS 62 79 58 77 / 10 90 70 0
GAINESVILLE 61 76 56 72 / 40 90 80 10
MACON 62 84 60 79 / 10 70 80 10
ROME 59 74 52 72 / 60 100 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 59 77 54 75 / 30 90 70 0
VIDALIA 65 88 64 82 / 0 50 80 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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