461
FXUS62 KFFC 030832
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AT A GLANCE:
-ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW MORNING, LEAVING COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN IT'S WAKE.
A RATHER MESSY PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY TO MOST OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE LINE NEAR COLUMBUS MAY ENCOUNTER A FAVORABLE
WARM SECTOR IN WHICH TO GET ORGANIZED WITH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
HELP KEEP A LID ON THE INSTABILITY AND AS THE PARENT LOW PUSHES OFF
TO THE NE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE
30+ KTS WE SAW LAST NIGHT.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN
THE MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE STORMS, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING STORMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH OUR THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK TODAY, BUT PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
VAUGHN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
-DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK
-UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN MID-WEEK STICKING AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, AN UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY REGIONS WITH THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDED AT
THIS POINT AND THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WELL TO OUR EAST. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM RELATIVE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA, WE CAN EXPECT
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. FORECAST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE, ASIDE FROM
NORTHEAST GA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S. THE
COOLEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WHERE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MID-WEEK (WEDNESDAY), LATEST ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL US FLATTENS AS ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
MIDLEVELS WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS, UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK TO
BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING COINCIDING
WITH PEAK HEATING. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL REMAIN
'COOLER' PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH FORECAST VALUES IN THE
70S IN MOST LOCATIONS -- ASIDE FROM NORTHEAST GA WHERE TEMPERATURES
MAY ONLY REACH THE 60S.
07
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TSRA HAS COME TO AN END FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AN APPROACHING FRONT
WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHRA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
AFTER WHICH, CONDITIONS SCT OUT TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO DUE SOUTH WITH A FEW OBS ON
THE EAST SIDE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE GOING BACK TO THE WEST SIDE
AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A PROB30 BUT TIMING WILL LIKELY
CHANGE IN THE COMING TAF CYCLES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS AND WX
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 79 54 74 49 / 80 80 0 0
ATLANTA 75 55 72 51 / 90 70 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 70 48 67 42 / 100 80 20 0
CARTERSVILLE 73 51 71 46 / 90 50 0 0
COLUMBUS 78 56 76 52 / 90 70 0 0
GAINESVILLE 74 54 71 49 / 90 80 10 0
MACON 82 58 77 51 / 70 80 10 0
ROME 72 50 70 46 / 100 30 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 76 52 73 47 / 90 70 0 0
VIDALIA 87 63 82 57 / 50 80 30 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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