421
FXUS62 KFFC 051836
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
236 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
-DRY AIR AND BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
-RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF HIGHER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PATTERN AT THE MID LEVELS SHOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
TENNESSEE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN A FUNNELING OF
DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL
THIS BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEST PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM,
THERE IS ONLY A 15% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA
CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE FORCING EXISTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD. OTHER THAN THAT, TEMPS WILL BE
MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGE
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA, SWEPT UP
INTO THE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH A STRENGTHENING JET BEHIND IT.
DISTURBANCES WILL BE PULLED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY
DEEPENING TROUGH FROM OVER THE GULF TO EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY LIKELY AT LEAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS WEAKENING CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF LEAVE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE
QUICKER IN DRYING OUT THE REGION THAN THE ECMWF, SUGGESTING A LOWER
RISK FOR PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS SOMEWHAT
MORE MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY THAN THE GFS, THOUGH STILL DECREASED
COMPARED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS
DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE LESS RISK FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN BY HOW MUCH THAT RISK WILL BE
DECREASED.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING
SAID, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 80 OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CRS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
CU FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HANG ON UNTIL THE SUN GOES
DOWN WHEN SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OUT EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SHOULD SEE THE CU FIELD FORM AGAIN TOMORROW AT 5-6KFT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 48 78 55 70 / 0 0 10 50
ATLANTA 52 78 59 70 / 0 0 30 70
BLAIRSVILLE 43 71 48 65 / 0 0 20 60
CARTERSVILLE 47 77 55 70 / 0 0 30 70
COLUMBUS 53 82 60 76 / 0 10 30 60
GAINESVILLE 49 76 56 67 / 0 0 10 60
MACON 51 82 59 75 / 0 0 10 60
ROME 46 77 55 70 / 0 0 30 70
PEACHTREE CITY 48 79 57 71 / 0 0 30 70
VIDALIA 57 85 62 78 / 0 0 0 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....CRS
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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