608
FXUS62 KFFC 270717
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
MAY IS COMING TO A CLOSE AND IT HAS CERTAINLY BEEN A MONTH OF
MCSS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS). THESE SYSTEMS ARE CHALLENGING
TO FORECAST, AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE MID-/UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT DRIVE THEM. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL OF THE
MCSS THIS MONTH HAVE OCCURRED LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND DELAYING OR
HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THE FOLLOWING AFTERNOON.
LIKE YESTERDAY, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE ENVIRONMENT FAIRLY
STABLE THUS FAR TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST. ALSO
LIKE YESTERDAY, THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AN MCS WITH IMPACT NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW (TUESDAY) MORNING. HOW MUCH
INSOLATION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP
DETERMINE HOW "JUICY" THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONCE THE MCS ARRIVES (EVEN
AFTER DAYTIME HEATING CEASES). ADDITIONALLY, SOMETHING OF A
PSEUDO-WEDGE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN MESOANALYSIS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AS
IT COULD INTENSIFY UPDRAFTS AND/OR MAXIMIZE ROTATION ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS (A SIMILAR INTERACTION MAY HAVE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN, OR LEWP, AND
LOCALIZED TORNADO RISK OBSERVED WITH THE MCS LAST NIGHT). SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 STARTING
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MCS MOVES THROUGH. THE MCS --
ASSUMING THAT IT MAINTAINS INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST -- WILL BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE PROBABILITY
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.
ON THE HYDROLOGY SIDE, 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED AREAS
OF 3-4 INCHES ACROSS WEST GEORGIA. NEAR-SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE IS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGH ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA GIVEN THE RAINY,
MCS-Y MONTH WE HAVE HAD. WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT
OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS METRO ATLANTA AND MIDDLE GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL ATOP THE ALREADY-
WET SOILS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA.
WPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST GEORGIA AND
METRO ATLANTA TOMORROW AS WELL, GIVEN THE MCS AS A HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCER AND POTENTIALLY *ANOTHER* MCS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN
THE EVENING.
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY, A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW, A SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES, WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. EURO
ENSEMBLE AND GEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THIS
SETUP, WITH THE EURO STILL RESOLVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST COMPARED TO THE GEFS. LATEST GEFS GUIDANCE ALSO
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST NOT PRESENT IN THE ECMWF. IN THE GEFS SCENARIO, THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST WOULD POTENTIALLY HELP REINFORCE THE WEDGE ON
WEDNESDAY, MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
HOWEVER, EURO BRINGING GREATER RAINFALL AND COVER OVER THE TOP OF
THE WEDGE WOULD REINFORCE THE COOL DOME UNDERNEATH (WHICH MODELS
NOTABLY STRUGGLE WITH). IN EITHER CASE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
WEDGE HOLDING ON LONGER THAN FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDED LOWER IN NORTH
GEORGIA THAT AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S COMBINED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE WEDGE AND UPPER 80S TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WEDGE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK, ISOLATED
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT OCCUR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. ON THURSDAY, GEFS GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW, WITH IT BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH, PROGRESSING QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST EURO, BY CONTRAST, KEEPS THE UPPER LOW STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED, MOVING IT EASTWARD MUCH MORE SLOWLY. WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH FEEDBACK
FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND THE BEHAVIOR AND EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL INFLUENCE THE SPECIFICS OF THE
IMPACTS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ENSEMBLES DO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND, INDICATING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CLEARING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH, GIVING WAY TO COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
KING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE PRECIP IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND SEEING IFR CEILINGS
MOVING IN. EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE IS HELPING TO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT BUT ITS ALSO
BRING IN CEILINGS IN THE 400-600FT RANGE. WE WILL SEE THESE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH 15-17Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE MVFR VSBYS WITH THESE LOWERED
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 71 60 81 64 / 80 80 40 30
ATLANTA 78 65 82 67 / 80 80 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 68 56 77 58 / 70 70 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 77 62 82 63 / 80 80 40 40
COLUMBUS 87 67 86 68 / 70 60 50 40
GAINESVILLE 67 59 80 64 / 80 70 40 30
MACON 87 66 86 67 / 70 60 50 30
ROME 78 63 82 64 / 90 70 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 82 64 83 65 / 80 80 40 30
VIDALIA 89 69 90 71 / 70 50 40 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...01
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