003
FXUS62 KFFC 271056
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
656 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH MORE PRECIP MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE
AFTER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/WEDGE BUILDING INTO NE GA
WITH SOME CAD (COLD AIR DAMMING) DEVELOPING AS WELL. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WEDGE HAS PUSHED INTO THE NE ATL SUBURBS WITH A
TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 61 OVER 59 AT PDK AND ATL STILL SITTING AT 72
OVER 69. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WEDGE BUILDING IN FAIRLY
DEEP INTO THE AREA WHICH IS A BIT RARE TO HAVE ONE THIS STRONG
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS VERY WELCOMED AS IT WILL HELP TO
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND MINIMIZE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS
IS VERY EVIDENT AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING CAPES INCREASING INTO
THE 800-1200 J/KG RANGE BUT ONLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BUILDING
WEDGE. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE JUST HOW FAR THIS WEDGE PUSHES
INTO THE STATE BUT FOR NOW THE BEST LOCATION OF ANY STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY
TOMORROW.
TEMPS TODAY ACROSS NE GA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW UNDER THE WEDGE. WILL SEE
JUST THE OPPOSITE ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO GET UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPS WILL BE A TAD BIT WARMER
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL SEEING WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE
NE GA MOUNTAINS.
01
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW OF THESE
MAY BE SEVERE.
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY, DRYING OUT ON SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SLOWLY RETURN IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST:
MODELS SEEM TO FINALLY BE COMING TO AN AGREEMENT AROUND WHAT WILL BE
HAPPENING IN THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH GEFS SUITE COMING
AROUND TO STRONGER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND DRIVING
COLD FRONT THROUGH. BEFORE THAT THOUGH, SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OUT AHEAD OF IT. THERE WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENCY
ON WHAT HAPPENS THE NIGHT BEFORE, BUT IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT,
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTION
THAT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OCCUR. ON FRIDAY, AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, PRETTY STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN US
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL US
CAUSING US PROBLEMS FINALLY DECIDES TO MOVE ALONG. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY, AND DEPENDING
ON TIMING, COULD SEE A LINE OF STORMS FORM ALONG IT. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SURFACE HIGH COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT MEANING SATURDAY SHOULD
(FINALLY) BE DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT FOR LATE MAY/EARLY
JUNE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (AND POSSIBLY SOME 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS IN MORE ELEVATED LOCATIONS). ENSEMBLES SHOW ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD SQUEEZE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OUT OVER
NORTHERN GA, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY RETURN THAT, WHEN COUPLED WITH EARLY
JUNE SUNSHINE, COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LUSK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE/WEDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SW INTO THE STATE. THE WEDGE IS HELPING TO
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT BUT ITS ALSO BRING IN CEILINGS IN THE
400-700FT RANGE. WE WILL SEE THESE LOW CEILINGS LIFT INTO THE
MVFR RANGE THROUGH 15-17Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING
IN THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL FALL BACK DOWN INTO THE IFR
RANGE THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE MVFR VSBYS IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE
IN THE 6-12KT RANGE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 71 60 81 64 / 80 80 40 30
ATLANTA 78 65 82 67 / 80 80 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 68 56 77 58 / 70 70 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 77 62 82 63 / 80 80 40 40
COLUMBUS 87 67 86 68 / 70 60 50 40
GAINESVILLE 67 59 80 64 / 80 70 40 30
MACON 87 66 86 67 / 70 60 50 30
ROME 78 63 82 64 / 90 70 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 82 64 83 65 / 80 80 40 30
VIDALIA 89 69 90 71 / 70 50 40 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...01
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