148
FXUS62 KFFC 280716
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
AT A GLANCE:
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.
AN UNSEASONABLE WEDGE HAS SET ITSELF UP OVER NE GEORGIA WHICH IX
MIXING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT'S DRAPED ACROSS THE SE. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE A BIT OF A MESS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MISTY CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THE WARM SECTOR IS PRETTY CLEAR JUST
LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND OBS WITH ONLY A FEW COUNTIES SEPARATING 50
AND 70 DEWPOINTS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE WILL
ERODE, AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR WILL EXPAND TO THE
NORTH.
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
ESPECIALLY NOW THAT SOME OF THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA AND
THEY'RE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SEE
SOME CLOUD BREAKS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-
1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
THAT'S WHERE WE'RE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES
AREN'T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE WEDGE, WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS.
NORTH OF I-20 IS NEARLY A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AIR MASS. LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO LINGER. THIS MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED AN
IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH CIN VALUES NEAR 200 J/KG. OBS ARE SHOWING
THAT DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE WEDGED AREA HAVEN'T EVEN GOTTEN OUT OF
THE 50S YET AND IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE THESE VALUES WILL IMPROVE OR
THAT THE INVERSION WILL BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO POP THE CAP OVER THE
WEDGED AIR MASS. ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE IT INTO THIS AREA, ARE
LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. SO WHILE A COUPLE OF
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA.
FOR TOMORROW, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD SETTING UP ALONG AND WEST OF I-16 AND BE OUR SOURCE OF
LIFT AGAIN FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DAYTIME HEATING THUNDERSTORM EVENT.
WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW APPEARS
LOW, ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT COULD HAVE
STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS.
VAUGHN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN,
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ANTICIPATED TO OPEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE
OPEN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DECOUPLE DURING THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL FORCE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND
HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA, AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. AMPLE MOISTURE AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30-35 KT WILL COMBINE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION, WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT OCCUR. IF THE SUN IS ABLE TO BREAK OUT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH, STRONG INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
THERE, AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
TENNESSEE, WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYTIME, ALLOWING FOR MORE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA
BEFORE THE LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 15% RISK
FOR SEVERE OUTLINED BY SPC IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (AND POSSIBLY SOME 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN MORE ELEVATED LOCATIONS). ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS OUT OVER NORTHERN GA. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH
THE SYSTEM, SO SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND SUBSEQUENTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
KING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL AROUND THE AREA BUT TODAY SHOULD BE A
BIT DRIER. MAIN WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WITH A BIT DRIER
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY. SEEING MAINLY IFR CEILINGS
WITH EAST WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. THESE CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 18-21Z. WINDS
WILL ALSO TURN TO THE SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THEN TO THE SW BY
MIDDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN, THE CEILINGS WILL START TO LIFT AS WELL
AS THE WEDGE RETREATS. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AT BAY BUT LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. VSBYS WILL BE IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING THEN
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 64 81 63 / 30 10 40 50
ATLANTA 82 66 79 65 / 20 10 60 60
BLAIRSVILLE 77 58 76 58 / 40 10 40 60
CARTERSVILLE 83 63 80 63 / 30 10 50 70
COLUMBUS 87 68 84 67 / 20 20 70 60
GAINESVILLE 80 64 79 64 / 30 10 40 60
MACON 87 67 84 65 / 20 10 70 50
ROME 83 63 80 64 / 30 10 60 70
PEACHTREE CITY 84 64 80 64 / 20 10 60 60
VIDALIA 89 71 88 68 / 30 10 70 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...01
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