164
FXUS62 KFFC 281744
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF
MOISTURE IS PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANTICIPATED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z. THIS WILL
USHER IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND ALSO
HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE WEAKENING WEDGE OVER NE GA. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO WEST GA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS NEXT WAVE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS MORNING THEN MOVES NE INTO
SOUTHERN LA THIS EVENING. IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NE ACROSS MS/AL
TONIGHT AND STARTS KNOCKING ON THE WESTERN GA BORDER RIGHT AROUND
12Z THU. INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GA WITH CAPES EXPECTED IN THE 700 TO 1400J/KG RANGE THU AFTERNOON.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS CENTRAL GA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR
CENTRAL GA WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 60S WITH SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NE GA MOUNTAINS.
01
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN GEORGIA ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL EXPECTED IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
- A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY,
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED BETWEEN SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY:
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FAVOR UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-500 MB SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 55 KT. TOSS IN MUCAPE IN THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE
AND THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND WELL DEFINED SURFACE
FORCING (THE FRONT) SHOULD FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE LINE OF EITHER
CONTINUOUS STORMS OR BROKEN SEGMENTS. THIS SUGGEST DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD, THOUGH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
6.5 AND 7.0 C/KM COULD LEAD A COUPLE OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD DICTATE THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY BRINGS
THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA IN THE MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED. A SLOWING DOWN OF THE
FRONTAL TIMING COULD INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF INTERSTATE
85, WHILE AN ACCELERATED FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD PUSH THE GREATEST
RISK FURTHER INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
OVER THE WEEKEND:
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND RIDGING IN THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIP INTO
THE 50S. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS SHOULD MAKE
FOR A PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN
ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING NORTHERN
GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST IS RUNNING WITH 15-30% CHANCES FOR THUNDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY, WITH LOW TO MID 80S
FAVORED FOR MOST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FAVOR DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE DEWPOINT CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S.
ALBRIGHT
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL START US OFF, BUT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WE SHOULD BREAK INTO LOW
VFR BY 19Z. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AFTER 20Z. A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR HAS BEEN INCLUDED AS MVFR
CIGS ARE AT LEAST POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW OBS OF EAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z, BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SW
SHORTLY AFTER AT 5-10KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 64 81 63 / 30 10 40 30
ATLANTA 82 66 79 65 / 20 10 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 77 58 76 58 / 40 10 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 83 63 80 63 / 30 10 50 50
COLUMBUS 87 68 84 67 / 20 10 70 40
GAINESVILLE 80 64 79 64 / 30 10 40 40
MACON 87 67 84 65 / 20 10 60 40
ROME 83 63 80 64 / 30 10 50 60
PEACHTREE CITY 84 64 80 64 / 20 10 60 40
VIDALIA 89 71 88 68 / 20 10 60 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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