326
FXUS62 KFFC 290603
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
AT A GLANCE:
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
PRIMARILY TO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE WEDGE. WHAT IS A WEDGE DOING IN
NORTH GEORGIA AT THE END OF MAY? THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION, AND IT'S
BEEN WREAKING HAVOC ON MY FORECAST ALL MORNING. ANOTHER LOW IS
FINALLY SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE SE THOUGH, AND THAT WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDY OVERCAST CONDITIONS THAT WE'VE
SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD HAS ALLOWED FOR AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY TO BE
GENERATED IN THE WARM SECTOR (~1000J/KG). TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
WEDGE ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE TEMPS NORTH OF THE
WEDGE HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. A FEW STORMS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE IN FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AND WE'RE EXPECTING
AT LEAST A HANDFUL MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO COULD OVERACHIEVE AND BECOME SEVERE WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT.
TOMORROW'S SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR BUT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS OFF
TO THE NE, SO WILL THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA. LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR VALUES AND SBCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT WE'RE
NOT LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY KIND OF OUTBREAK. IF YOU'D
LIKE TO READ ABOUT NICER WEATHER, PLEASE SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
VAUGHN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN GEORGIA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS OR HAIL EXPECTED IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY,
DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY MORNING, A STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT ROTATES TO THE EAST, AT WHICH POINT THE
SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING, ADVANCING SOUTHWARD OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA IN
THE MORNING, CLEARING THE I-85 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY, AND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON.
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LOOK AT HI-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL, WHICH, COMBINED
WITH SURFACE LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WOULD FAVOR A
PROGRESSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS. FURTHERMORE, MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1000
J/KG ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA AS THE MORNING BEGINS. INSTABILITY
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME IN AREAS STILL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 2500-
3000 J/KG IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SEVERAL
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF I-85 WHICH WILL SEE MORE DIURNAL HEATING AND BE ABLE TO
ACHIEVE GREATER INSTABILITY COMPARED TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A POCKET OF COOLER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS COULD
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 7.0
C/KG. THEREFORE, LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SPEED AT WHICH THE
FRONT PROGRESSES RELATIVE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER
SEVERE RISK FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE EVENT THE FRONT IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OR A REDUCED RISK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IF
THE FRONT IS FASTER THAN FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL SET UP ALOFT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS TO
THE EAST AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO SET UP AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING NORTHERN
GEORGIA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20, WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES TO THE
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING SOUTHEAST COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND WILL ALSO LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ADVANCES EASTWARD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST, GRADUAL WARMING AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
KING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL GA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO NOT EXPECTING THEM TO MOVE INTO THE ATL/AHN AREA TAF
SITES. CSG AND MCN MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER BUT IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. IFR CEILINGS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL DIMINISH BY 13Z-14Z. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
BEGINS PUSHING INTO W GA AROUND 12Z SO SHOULD SEE SHRA/TSRA AT THE
TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 14-16Z FOR CSG AND ATL AND A HOUR OR
TWO LATER FOR AHN/MCN. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 64 82 63 78 / 10 70 40 80
ATLANTA 66 79 65 77 / 20 80 40 80
BLAIRSVILLE 58 77 58 71 / 10 70 40 90
CARTERSVILLE 63 80 63 77 / 20 70 40 90
COLUMBUS 69 84 67 81 / 30 90 40 80
GAINESVILLE 64 80 64 76 / 20 70 40 90
MACON 67 84 66 81 / 10 80 50 80
ROME 63 81 64 78 / 20 70 30 90
PEACHTREE CITY 65 80 64 78 / 20 80 30 80
VIDALIA 70 87 68 85 / 10 80 50 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...01
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