262
FXUS62 KFFC 291751
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
151 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT
THEY ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (CENTERED ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER) MOVING NE PUSHING
SHOWERS ACROSS AL. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH E TO NE TODAY
AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BEGINNING
AROUND SUNRISE. PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED OVER GA. INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CAPES GETTING UP INTO THE 500 TO 1000J/KG RANGE. ALSO SEEING A
WEAK JET MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND SEEING
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-50KT RANGE FROM 18Z THU TO 00Z FRI.
SPC HAS UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SE GA TO A SLIGHT RISK INCLUDING
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CORDELE TO DUBLIN TO AUGUSTA LINE.
THE BIGGEST THREAT ACROSS THAT AREA SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, AND SOME HAIL.
THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT MAKING WAY
FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF TN EARLY FRI
MORNING. BY 12Z FRI THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
NW GA BORDER AND WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STAY FAIRLY ORGANIZED AS IT
PUSHES ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTH GA/N FL THROUGH SAT MORNING. HI-RES
MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA BY
18Z. THIS IS DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE THROUGH 00Z SAT. THIS IS ALSO WHEN CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
PEAK ALONG THE LINE SO SPC KEEPING A SLIGHT RISK FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85 CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.
AGAIN, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN,
AND SOME HAIL LOOK POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
TEMPS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S.
01
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY MAY GIVE WAY TO A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE WEEKEND:
OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS GEORGIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SEASONALLY LOW HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIP INTO
THE UPPER 50S, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. ON
SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT MAY ENCROACH ON NORTHERN GEORGIA. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT FOR STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD IS CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. AROUND 60% OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF MEMBERS BRING ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTH GEORGIA TO GENERATE 500-1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE (SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS). THE REST KEEP MUCAPE IN THE 0-500
J/KG RANGE (UNFAVORABLE FOR STORMS). GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY OUR
FORECAST STORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAIN IN
THE 15-45% RANGE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK
REMAINS LOW FOR THIS PERIOD, BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN CASE
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS INCREASES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND FAVOR A PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. OUR GOING FORECAST KEEPS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA DRY MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FOLLOWS GEFS AND EPS
TRENDS THAT HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS LOWER AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE LAST 4 TO 6 ENSEMBLE RUNS. TEMPERATURES ALL THREE DAYS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS (BY 0 TO 5 DEGREES).
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY, WITH SOME
90S POTENTIALLY CREEPING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
ALBRIGHT
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 16Z AS A FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF THE LIFTING
FRONT, THE CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL REMAIN IN THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND 02Z.
OUTSIDE OF WX, CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN LOW VFR AND HIGH MVFR WITH VIS
CONDITIONAL ON RAINFALL INTENSITY. WINDS WILL BE NNW AT 5-10KTS
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME VRB WINDS DURING THE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION.
MEDIUM ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 77 62 78 57 / 80 50 70 0
ATLANTA 76 63 78 58 / 80 30 70 0
BLAIRSVILLE 72 56 71 52 / 80 30 80 10
CARTERSVILLE 74 61 78 55 / 80 20 70 0
COLUMBUS 81 66 83 59 / 90 30 50 0
GAINESVILLE 75 62 76 57 / 80 40 70 0
MACON 81 65 83 58 / 90 40 50 10
ROME 75 62 78 56 / 80 10 70 0
PEACHTREE CITY 76 63 78 56 / 80 30 70 0
VIDALIA 87 68 86 62 / 80 60 40 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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