978
FXUS62 KFFC 291839
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
239 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
AT A GLANCE:
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
PRIMARILY TO THE AREA SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WE'RE EXPECTING
INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO THE LEVEL OF AROUND 1000J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS AT THE FAR REACHES OF OUR CWA CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH A MID
LEVEL JET CREATING 30-50KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS BUT THE CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SET UP. THERE IS ALSO
THE FACTOR OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND FURTHEST NORTHERN EXTENT THAT MAKE
THE FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY. ONGOING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AS A RESULT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO MACON MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AREA WIDE THUNDERSTORMS COMES
TOMORROW. A TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT THIS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH, BUT IT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. AS OF RIGHT
NOW THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BOTH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.
VAUGHN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD OVER GEORGIA
ON SATURDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE.
- DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, DRIER-THAN-NORMAL AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS GEORGIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE AS LOW AS
10TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ON SATURDAY, AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, MOSTLY TO
NORTH GEORGIA, TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE, WITH
POPS AS HIGH AS 35-40% IN FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA, AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN AS WELL. THE RISK IS LIKELY TO BE
GENERALLY CONSTRAINED TO NORTH OF I-20.
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED BY
A STRONGER RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH OFF OF HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE; REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, PARTICULARLY WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE JETSTREAM IS ALSO FORECAST TO PULL NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARD
FROM OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TUESDAY, PUTTING THE JETSTREAM OVER AND OFF THE COAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS SUCH, THERE IS LESS TO STEER ANY
DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, TUESDAY IS ALSO WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW
INCREASING LEVELS OF DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES MUCH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES - NEAR
0.6-0.7 INCHES. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROADER HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING ADDITIONAL DRY AIR SOUTH FROM OVER CANADA. ADDITIONALLY,
THE ECMWF ELONGATES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GFS, AND THEN SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST. THIS HAS A GREATER INFLUENCE ON LOCAL CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT.
THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS, WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS VALUES AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS, COMBINED WITH THE LEAD TIME, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, IT
IS MORE LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CRS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 16Z AS A FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SIZE AND COMPLEXITY OF THE LIFTING
FRONT, THE CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL REMAIN IN THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND 02Z.
OUTSIDE OF WX, CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN LOW VFR AND HIGH MVFR WITH VIS
CONDITIONAL ON RAINFALL INTENSITY. WINDS WILL BE NNW AT 5-10KTS
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME VRB WINDS DURING THE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION.
MEDIUM ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 78 57 80 / 50 70 0 0
ATLANTA 63 78 58 79 / 30 70 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 56 71 52 74 / 30 80 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 61 78 55 80 / 20 70 0 0
COLUMBUS 66 83 59 83 / 30 50 0 0
GAINESVILLE 62 76 57 79 / 40 70 0 0
MACON 65 83 58 83 / 40 50 10 0
ROME 62 78 56 81 / 10 70 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 63 78 56 80 / 30 70 0 0
VIDALIA 68 86 62 84 / 60 40 20 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....CRS
AVIATION...VAUGHN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page