239
FXUS62 KFFC 300538 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
AT A GLANCE:
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
PRIMARILY TO THE AREA SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WE'RE
EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO THE LEVEL OF AROUND 1000J/KG BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS AT THE FAR REACHES OF OUR CWA CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THIS COMBINED
WITH A MID LEVEL JET CREATING 30-50KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS BUT THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SET UP. THERE IS
ALSO THE FACTOR OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND FURTHEST NORTHERN EXTENT
THAT MAKE THE FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY. ONGOING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AS A RESULT AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AREA WIDE
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TOMORROW. A TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THIS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH, BUT IT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA. AS OF RIGHT NOW THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.
VAUGHN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD OVER GEORGIA
ON SATURDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE.
- DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, DRIER-THAN-NORMAL AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS GEORGIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE
AS LOW AS 10TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ON SATURDAY, AND ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE,
MOSTLY TO NORTH GEORGIA, TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS. SOME RAIN IS
POSSIBLE, WITH POPS AS HIGH AS 35-40% IN FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA, AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN AS WELL. THE RISK IS LIKELY TO
BE GENERALLY CONSTRAINED TO NORTH OF I-20.
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BE
REINFORCED BY A STRONGER RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH OFF OF HUDSON BAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE; REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT OF THE APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS,
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, PARTICULARLY WITH THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE JETSTREAM IS ALSO FORECAST TO
PULL NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARD FROM OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY, PUTTING THE JETSTREAM OVER
AND OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS SUCH,
THERE IS LESS TO STEER ANY DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, TUESDAY IS ALSO WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW
INCREASING LEVELS OF DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES MUCH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES -
NEAR 0.6-0.7 INCHES. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROADER HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING ADDITIONAL DRY AIR SOUTH FROM OVER CANADA.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ELONGATES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS, AND THEN SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW
OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. THIS HAS A GREATER INFLUENCE ON LOCAL
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST
WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY
TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS VALUES AT OR
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS, COMBINED WITH THE
LEAD TIME, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CRS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND PATCHY VLIFR ARE IN PLACE AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ALONG
WITH AREAS OF BR AND PATCHY FG. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE PROGGED TO
SCATTER OUT/LIFT TO MVFR BY MID-/LATE-MORNING, BEFORE A LINE OF
SHRA AND TSRA PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE W TO WNW, INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, LEAVING JUST FEW/SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS (HIGHER THAN ~6.5 KFT) IN ITS WAKE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 79 57 81 / 50 80 0 0
ATLANTA 63 78 58 80 / 30 70 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 56 71 52 74 / 30 80 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 61 78 55 81 / 20 80 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 84 59 83 / 30 70 0 0
GAINESVILLE 62 76 57 80 / 40 80 0 0
MACON 65 84 59 83 / 40 70 10 0
ROME 62 78 56 81 / 20 80 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 63 79 56 81 / 30 80 0 0
VIDALIA 68 87 62 84 / 60 60 40 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....CRS
AVIATION...MARTIN
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