853
FXUS62 KFFC 300548
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
148 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
GEORGIA TODAY.
- DRY WEATHER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGIA
ON SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS TODAY:
A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CHARGE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ALLOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS RISE IN MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BY THE TIME THE FRONT
REACHES INTERSTATE 85 THE HREF MEAN PROJECTS MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG, AND INDIVIDUAL MODELS SUGGEST MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 2500
J/KG. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDINGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST 35-45 KT OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM
SHEAR FOR CONVECTION TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS, AND IT SHOULD FAVOR LINEAR STORM
MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH) AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. IF A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SUPER CELLS DEVELOP OR CONDITIONS
ALIGN CORRECTLY FOR A MESOVORTICES WITHIN ANY LINE SEGMENTS, THEN A
COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR. THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN INTERSTATES 85 AND 16,
WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND 0-1 KM SRH MAY EXIST.
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON TRACK COMPARED TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST, WITH THE 00Z HREF GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CAMS. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE
INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA BETWEEN 8 AM AND 11 AM, BEFORE IMPACTING THE
ATLANTA METRO BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
5 OR 6 PM. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SPC WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING.
NICE WEATHER SATURDAY:
A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL
FAVOR NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE 79 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE COOLER (70S). AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A QUIETER PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY:
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA ON
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT, WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW,
INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROUGHLY 60% OF THE GEFS/EPS MEMBERS
BEING DRY AND THE OTHER 40% GENERATING SOME PRECIPITATION. OUR
FORECAST RAIN CHANCES ARE SIMILAR (15-45% RANGE). IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE REGION SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND FAVOR DRY
WEATHER. GIVEN THE RAINY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN LATELY THIS BREAK
SHOULD BE APPRECIATED BY MANY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO SET IN, AS
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S ON MONDAY TURN INTO UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S BY WEDNESDAY.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE
GENERAL TREND FAVORS RISING RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY ADVANCES EASTWARD. ANY
RAINFALL MAY BE ENHANCED BY AS OF YET POORLY RESOLVED SHORTWAVES
MOVING EAST WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW. THEREFORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS TO OUR FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME RANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM
(UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S).
ALBRIGHT
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND PATCHY VLIFR ARE IN PLACE AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ALONG
WITH AREAS OF BR AND PATCHY FG. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE PROGGED TO
SCATTER OUT/LIFT TO MVFR BY MID-/LATE-MORNING, BEFORE A LINE OF
SHRA AND TSRA PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE W TO WNW, INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, LEAVING JUST FEW/SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS (HIGHER THAN ~6.5 KFT) IN ITS WAKE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 79 57 81 / 50 80 0 0
ATLANTA 63 78 58 80 / 30 70 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 56 71 52 74 / 30 80 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 61 78 55 81 / 20 80 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 84 59 83 / 30 70 0 0
GAINESVILLE 62 76 57 80 / 40 80 0 0
MACON 65 84 59 83 / 40 70 10 0
ROME 62 78 56 81 / 20 80 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 63 79 56 81 / 30 80 0 0
VIDALIA 68 87 62 84 / 60 60 40 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...MARTIN
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