323
FXUS62 KFFC 301028 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
GEORGIA TODAY.
- DRY WEATHER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGIA
ON SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS TODAY:
A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CHARGE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ALLOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS RISE IN MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BY THE TIME
THE FRONT REACHES INTERSTATE 85 THE HREF MEAN PROJECTS MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG, AND INDIVIDUAL MODELS SUGGEST
MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FUEL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST 35-45 KT OF
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR CONVECTION TO WORK WITH.
THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS, AND IT
SHOULD FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS OF 40
TO 60 MPH) AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. IF A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SUPER
CELLS DEVELOP OR CONDITIONS ALIGN CORRECTLY FOR A MESOVORTICES
WITHIN ANY LINE SEGMENTS, THEN A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR. THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
BE BETWEEN INTERSTATES 85 AND 16, WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND 0-1 KM SRH MAY EXIST. THE TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON TRACK COMPARED TO THE PRIOR FORECAST,
WITH THE 00Z HREF GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS CAMS. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA BETWEEN 8 AM AND 11 AM, BEFORE IMPACTING THE
ATLANTA METRO BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING CENTRAL GEORGIA
BY 5 OR 6 PM. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SPC WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING.
NICE WEATHER SATURDAY:
A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL
FAVOR NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE 79 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE COOLER (70S).
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A QUIETER PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY:
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA ON
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE FRONT, WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW,
INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROUGHLY 60% OF THE
GEFS/EPS MEMBERS BEING DRY AND THE OTHER 40% GENERATING SOME
PRECIPITATION. OUR FORECAST RAIN CHANCES ARE SIMILAR (15-45%
RANGE). IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF AND
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE REGION SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA TO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND FAVOR
DRY WEATHER. GIVEN THE RAINY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN LATELY THIS
BREAK SHOULD BE APPRECIATED BY MANY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO SET
IN, AS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S ON MONDAY TURN INTO UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE
GENERAL TREND FAVORS RISING RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY ADVANCES EASTWARD. ANY
RAINFALL MAY BE ENHANCED BY AS OF YET POORLY RESOLVED SHORTWAVES
MOVING EAST WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW. THEREFORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS TO OUR FORECAST FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME RANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
WARM (UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S).
ALBRIGHT
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
EXPECT THAT WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
BY MID-/LATE-MORNING. PATCHY REDUCED VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL. A
LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE FROM NW TO SE
OVER THE COURSE OF MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE TEMPOS
FOR CONVECTION AT ATL, THE OTHER METRO SITES, AND AHN FROM 17Z TO
20Z... AND AT MCN AND CSG FROM 19Z TO 22Z. THE TEMPO TIMINGS MAY
NEED TO BE TWEAKED ACCORDING TO UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WILL
BE W TO WNW AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING SKY THIS EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF CIGS THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 79 57 81 59 / 80 0 0 0
ATLANTA 78 58 80 62 / 70 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 71 52 74 53 / 80 10 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 78 55 81 59 / 80 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 84 59 83 62 / 70 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 76 57 80 60 / 80 0 0 0
MACON 84 59 83 61 / 70 10 0 0
ROME 78 56 81 59 / 80 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 79 56 81 59 / 80 0 0 0
VIDALIA 87 62 84 64 / 60 40 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...MARTIN
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