129
FXUS62 KFFC 310557
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION AND 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SUNNY TODAY (SATURDAY) WITH A POTENTIALLY HAZY/SMOKY
SKY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA.
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW (SUNDAY).
FOR MANY, THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A MUCH-NEEDED/MUCH-WANTED
RESPITE FROM THE NEARLY DAILY RAINFALL AND ROUNDS OF STORMS WE'VE
BEEN HAVING. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 50S. A DEEP MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ORIENTED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT, DRIER AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
COMPARED TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY -- GENERALLY IN THE 80S,
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HILLY TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER (PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CU) BUT THE SKY MAY APPEAR HAZY OR SMOKY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. HRRR SMOKE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
HAZE/SMOKE COULD BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS LAGRANGE TO MACON TO
AUGUSTA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES. ATTENDANT MOISTURE AND DESTABILIZATION COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW, CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY
NORTH OF I-20. A LACK OF SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, IT IS THE WARM
SEASON IN THE SOUTHEAST, SO A FEW STORMS COULD CAPITALIZE ON THESE
OTHERWISE MARGINAL PARAMETERS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS (POTENTIALLY
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) AND SMALL HAIL. ALL STORMS WILL,
OF COURSE, BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL, SO BE SURE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED.
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
- OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERATIONS FOR NEXT WEEK:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND AND SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AS SUBSIDENCE PUTS
THE KIBOSH ON ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE TREND TOWARD
DRY WEATHER IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS THAT PROJECT NO RAIN IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK WILL BE WARM,
BUT NOT GREATLY DIVORCED FROM SEASONAL NORMS. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 80S ON MONDAY SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK. THIS SHOULD OPEN DOOR FOR MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND PUSH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND. WHEN
COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
THIS WILL BRING OPPRESSIVE SOUTHERN HUMIDITY BACK TO THE STATE.
THE RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECREASING SUBSIDENCE (AS THE
RIDGE MOVES AWAY) SHOULD ALSO ALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
RETURN. THUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED DURING
THE FINAL THREE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME.
ALBRIGHT
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GENERALLY SKC ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODS OF FEW/SCT CU ~5 KFT. WNW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-13 KTS AFTER ~14Z WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 56 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 20
ATLANTA 58 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 50 75 54 76 / 10 0 0 40
CARTERSVILLE 54 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 59 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 56 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 20
MACON 58 83 61 85 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 56 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 55 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 61 84 64 87 / 20 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...MARTIN
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