450
FXUS62 KFFC 281959
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ANY STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
NUISANCE FLOODING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE (BUT STILL HOT AND MUGGY) CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE.
AT THE SURFACE, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT MCV FROM LAST NIGHT'S
PERSISTENT, IMPACTFUL CONVECTION CHURNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING IN MIND THAT ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND THE BROADER FORCING FROM THE LINGERING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ALREADY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THEIR OWN.
CONVERSELY, THE SLOW-TO-DISSIPATE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCV WILL LIKELY DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN
ATHENS AND MACON AS OPPOSED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST -- THOUGH
NOT SUBSTANTIALLY, AS WE'RE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. THIS MORNING'S 12Z/FFC
SOUNDING ANALYZED CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF JUST 5KTS (AND CORFIDI
UPSHEAR AND DOWNSHEAR VALUES OF 4-5KTS), SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT
FORM TO BE VERY NEARLY ABSENT OF ANY STEERING FLOW AND SOME MAY
BACKBUILD. WPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
WITHIN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AS A RESULT, AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MORE THAN JUST NUISANCE FLOODING/PONDING OF ROADS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS
2000-3000 J/KG, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POTENT UPWARD PULSES THAT
MAY PACK A PUNCH ON THE WAY DOWN, BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
FOR SUNDAY, RINSE AND REPEAT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN (MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE), AND IF
ANYTHING THE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO BE EVEN MORE MOIST THAN TODAY'S
(PWAT EXCEEDING 2" IN SOME LOCATIONS). AS SUCH, YET ANOTHER DAY OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION TO ROUND OFF THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY,
LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED AND PERHAPS VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED ALONG ANY
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM THIS EVENING'S STORMS.
HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
ALL BUT THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID-70S TO MID-80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90S TO LOWER
TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE, SO "COOLER" THAN OUR FIRST BONAFIDE HEATWAVE
MIDWEEK, BUT NOT COOL BY ANY MEANS. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
96
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY MOIST FORECAST, WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EVERY
DAY. SOME DECREASE IN POPS ON THE BACKEND OF THE WEEK, WITH
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
- SEVERE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST:
MOIST AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
BEEN OVER THE AREA FINALLY BEGINS TO FULLY FILL AND BREAK DOWN.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET PINCHED OFF FROM A TUTT OVER THE
ATLANTIC THANKS TO ANTICYCLONIC ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING OVER THE CONUS
WHICH WILL THEN RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE SE US. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE OVERALL POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE SUITES, BUT THE NET EFFECT EITHER WAY WILL BE TO
BRING INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES TO THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND DRIVE A QUICK MOVING
FRONT TOWARDS GA. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTABLE IN THE DIFFERENT
ENSEMBLE SUITES LIKELY IN PART TO DIFFERENT LEVELS OF
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE, WITH THE EURO SUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE GFS SUITE. FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CWA BY END OF NEXT WEEK AND BRIEFLY STALL, BUT ALL ENSEMBLES
SEEM TO HAVE BIG SIGNAL FOR BROAD COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING YET MORE MOISTURE
AND RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
THE NET EFFECT OF ALL OF THIS IS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS LOCK IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA BOTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTH AND AS A BYPRODUCT OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT UPPER LOW, BECAUSE IF IT DRIFTS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE WEST OVER THE CWA, EVEN BETTER LIFT AND INCREASED LAPSE RATES
MAY SPREAD OVER THE AREA, WHICH WOULD INCREASE SEVERE CHANCES. OTHER
THAN THAT, SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES MAY BE DICTATED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
AND WHETHER OR NOT THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP. FOR NOW, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE RELATIVELY LOWER POPS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA.
HIGHS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THANKS TO INCREASED
MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER, AND RAIN CHANCES, AND THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT UPPER 80S TO MID 80S. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REBOUND INTO THE 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE, IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S, THANKS TO THE COPIOUS MOISTURE KEEPING TDS ELEVATED
ACROSS THE REGION.
LUSK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
PRIMARILY FEW-SCT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD.
ISOLD TSRA PSBL ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 19-02Z THIS AFTN/EVE, WITH VERY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS LIKELY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW-VFR TO MVFR
VSBYS IN FG/BR TO DEVELOP FOLLOWING PCPN, BUT FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION/PLACEMENT. WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WSW
TO NW AT 4-8KTS, AND MAY GO CALM/VRB OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 70 92 70 90 / 20 40 20 60
ATLANTA 71 90 72 89 / 20 40 20 70
BLAIRSVILLE 63 86 65 85 / 30 60 30 80
CARTERSVILLE 68 90 70 89 / 20 40 20 70
COLUMBUS 71 92 72 91 / 20 60 20 80
GAINESVILLE 70 90 71 89 / 20 50 30 60
MACON 70 91 71 91 / 10 50 20 70
ROME 69 89 70 89 / 20 50 20 70
PEACHTREE CITY 68 90 69 90 / 20 40 20 70
VIDALIA 72 92 73 91 / 20 60 30 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...96
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