423
FXUS62 KFFC 290140 AAB
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
940 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..EVENING UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NORTH OF ATLANTA AND NORTHWEST OF
ATHENS AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING, 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS, AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL. EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR CENTRAL
FULTON COUNTY AND THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF DEKALB COUNTY, WHERE
1.5" TO 2.0" OF RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS EVENING ATOP THE SATURATED
SOILS FROM YESTERDAY'S HEAVY RAINFALL.
MARTIN
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ANY STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUISANCE
FLOODING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE (BUT STILL HOT AND MUGGY)
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
AT THE SURFACE, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT MCV FROM LAST
NIGHT'S PERSISTENT, IMPACTFUL CONVECTION CHURNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING IN MIND THAT
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE BROADER FORCING FROM THE LINGERING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALREADY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
THEIR OWN. CONVERSELY, THE SLOW-TO-DISSIPATE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV WILL LIKELY DELAY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN ATHENS AND MACON AS OPPOSED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST -- THOUGH NOT SUBSTANTIALLY, AS WE'RE STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. THIS
MORNING'S 12Z/FFC SOUNDING ANALYZED CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF JUST 5KTS
(AND CORFIDI UPSHEAR AND DOWNSHEAR VALUES OF 4-5KTS), SO EXPECT
ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO BE VERY NEARLY ABSENT OF ANY STEERING FLOW
AND SOME MAY BACKBUILD. WPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA WITHIN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS A RESULT, AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
TODAY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE THAN JUST NUISANCE
FLOODING/PONDING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
POTENT UPWARD PULSES THAT MAY PACK A PUNCH ON THE WAY DOWN, BUT
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
FOR SUNDAY, RINSE AND REPEAT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN (MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE), AND
IF ANYTHING THE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO BE EVEN MORE MOIST THAN
TODAY'S (PWAT EXCEEDING 2" IN SOME LOCATIONS). AS SUCH, YET
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION TO ROUND OFF THE
WEEKEND ON SUNDAY, LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED AND PERHAPS VERY WEAKLY
ORGANIZED ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM
THIS EVENING'S STORMS.
HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
FOR ALL BUT THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID-70S TO MID-80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE, SO "COOLER" THAN OUR FIRST BONAFIDE
HEATWAVE MIDWEEK, BUT NOT COOL BY ANY MEANS. MORNING LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
96
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY MOIST FORECAST, WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EVERY
DAY. SOME DECREASE IN POPS ON THE BACK END OF THE WEEK, WITH
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
- SEVERE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST:
MOIST AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FINALLY BEGINS TO FULLY FILL AND BREAK
DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET PINCHED OFF FROM A TUTT
OVER THE ATLANTIC THANKS TO ANTICYCLONIC ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING OVER
THE CONUS WHICH WILL THEN RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE SE US. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE OVERALL POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE SUITES, BUT THE NET EFFECT EITHER
WAY WILL BE TO BRING INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES TO THE CWA. BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND
DRIVE A QUICK MOVING FRONT TOWARDS GA. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
NOTABLE IN THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE SUITES LIKELY IN PART TO
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE, WITH THE EURO
SUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS SUITE. FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BY END OF NEXT WEEK AND BRIEFLY STALL,
BUT ALL ENSEMBLES SEEM TO HAVE BIG SIGNAL FOR BROAD COASTAL LOW TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
YET MORE MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
THE NET EFFECT OF ALL OF THIS IS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS LOCK IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY WHERE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA BOTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH AND AS A BYPRODUCT OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT UPPER LOW, BECAUSE IF IT DRIFTS A
BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE CWA, EVEN BETTER LIFT AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES MAY SPREAD OVER THE AREA, WHICH WOULD
INCREASE SEVERE CHANCES. OTHER THAN THAT, SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW
AT THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES MAY BE
DICTATED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE SE HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY HAVE RELATIVELY LOWER POPS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA.
HIGHS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THANKS TO
INCREASED MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER, AND RAIN CHANCES, AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT UPPER 80S TO MID 80S. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE,
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, THANKS TO THE COPIOUS MOISTURE
KEEPING TDS ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION.
LUSK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SHRA AND TSRA ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF METRO ATLANTA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CONVECTION HAS GENERATED GUSTS UP TO ~40 KTS. EXPECTING
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z. LIKE THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF OVERNIGHTS, PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS (IFR/MVFR) AND FG/BR WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW (SUNDAY) MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS LOW, HOWEVER.
A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW, WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SCT
CU FIELD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND
COVERAGE OF PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS/FG/BR OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 94 70 92 / 30 40 30 40
ATLANTA 70 92 71 90 / 30 40 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 62 86 63 86 / 40 60 30 60
CARTERSVILLE 68 91 68 90 / 30 40 30 40
COLUMBUS 71 89 71 92 / 20 40 30 60
GAINESVILLE 67 92 70 90 / 30 50 30 50
MACON 69 89 70 91 / 30 40 30 50
ROME 68 90 69 89 / 30 40 20 50
PEACHTREE CITY 68 91 68 90 / 30 50 30 40
VIDALIA 71 92 72 92 / 30 40 20 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...MARTIN
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