150
FXUS62 KFFC 290706
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
-LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND/OR NUISANCE FLOODING MAY ACCOMPANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOP.
-HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AS WE'VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS, PATCHY FOG/MIST AND LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SCATTERED MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND LOW-CLOUDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF WATER
BODIES AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY. ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ESSENTIALLY A RINSE
AND REPEAT FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY GIVEN
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE
AND SOMEWHAT FOCUSED IN AREAS WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM
YESTERDAY'S STORMS ARE PRESENT. SIMILAR STORY FOR MONDAY, THOUGH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN PWS (NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2") LOOK PLAUSIBLE AS A
TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO BROADEN/FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THUS, OUR ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WILL STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH
AFTERNOON GIVEN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
NUISANCE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DEVELOP OVER AREAS THAT HAVE MORE
RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC STILL MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT OUR FAR EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON (MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS). FORECAST MORNING LOWS REMAIN MILD WITH VALUES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
07
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY MOIST FORECAST, WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE POSITION
AND MOVEMENT OF A FRONT.
- WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL.
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 INCHES AND AS HIGH AS 2.2
INCHES. WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT, IT IS LIKELY THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LINGERING IN THE HOURS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING SUNSET ON MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY,
IT WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD THE NORTH GEORGIA BORDER.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, FORCING AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
EAST, TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. POPS ARE THUS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 70-85 PERCENT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT
THIS TIME, THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
LOW. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING RUNOFF IN URBAN AREAS AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LEADING TO SATURATED SOILS AND WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LOW TO THE EAST WILL WARRANT MONITORING. IF IT DRIFTS FURTHER WEST
OVER GEORGIA, IT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER LIFT AND LAPSE
RATES, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POPS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, AND HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH
LESSER CHANCES IN RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY ARE FORECAST IN CENTRAL GEORGIA, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST BASED ON THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST
IN NORTH GEORGIA AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
BECAUSE OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER, HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ON
THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOW 90S.
KING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
PATCHY BR/FG AND LOW CLOUDS (IFR/MVFR) WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THE OVERALL EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FG/BR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
PERSIST BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SW/W AT 4-7KTS. AS IN
PREVIOUS DAYS, ISO TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED BETWEEN 19-00Z.
THOUGH MAINTAIN A VCSH AT AHN. FEW TO SCT CU ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/EXTENT OF TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
COVERAGE OF PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS/FG/BR THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 91 70 90 71 / 30 20 60 40
ATLANTA 90 71 89 72 / 40 30 70 40
BLAIRSVILLE 85 64 84 66 / 60 30 80 50
CARTERSVILLE 90 70 88 71 / 50 30 80 40
COLUMBUS 91 71 90 72 / 50 40 80 30
GAINESVILLE 89 71 88 72 / 40 20 70 50
MACON 91 70 90 71 / 50 30 70 30
ROME 88 70 88 71 / 50 30 80 40
PEACHTREE CITY 89 69 89 70 / 50 30 70 30
VIDALIA 91 72 90 72 / 50 40 70 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page