119  
FXUS62 KFFC 300553  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
153 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING TODAY AND MONDAY.  
 
- ANY STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE  
NUISANCE FLOODING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  
 
- SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE (BUT STILL HOT AND MUGGY) CONDITIONS TO  
CONTINUE.  
 
WITH LINGERING TROUGHINESS (FOR LACK OF A BETTER OR MORE SCIENTIFIC  
WORD) AT THE MID-LEVELS AND WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE, EXPECTING THE  
SUMMERTIME STATUS QUO OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS  
MORNING'S 12Z FFC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY  
STORMS THAT FORM TO TRANSLATE AT JUST A FEW TICKS FASTER THAN THE  
PAST FEW DAYS' CRAWL. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL STEERING  
FLOW ALOFT, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACK BUILDING.  
WPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITHIN A  
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS A  
RESULT, AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY MAY BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING MORE THAN JUST NUISANCE FLOODING/PONDING OF ROADS AND  
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER  
OF 2000-3000 J/KG (AND PERHAPS HIGHER IN AREAS THAT INITIATE  
LATER), CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POTENT UPWARD PULSES THAT MAY PACK A  
PUNCH ON THE WAY DOWN, BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED  
SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
FOR MONDAY, RINSE AND REPEAT. PATCHY DECREASED VISIBILITIES IN FOG  
ARE POSSIBLE -- IN THE WAKE OF PRECIPITATION -- AROUND DAYBREAK  
TOMORROW, WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE  
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, AND IN SOME LOCATIONS, THE  
AIRMASS MAY BE EVEN MORE MOIST THAN TODAY'S (PWAT EXCEEDING 2"). AS  
SUCH, EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN, LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED AND PERHAPS  
VERY WEAKLY ORGANIZED ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT  
BEHIND FROM THIS EVENING'S STORMS.  
 
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S  
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON (MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE  
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS). FORECAST MORNING LOWS REMAIN MILD WITH VALUES  
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
96  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- WET TO START, NOW LOOKING LIKE THINGS MAY DRY UP A BIT FOR  
NORTH GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. STILL SCATTERED  
STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA  
 
- MORE AVERAGE AFTERNOON HIGHS BEFORE HEATING AGAIN TO THE LOWER  
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
FORECAST:  
 
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE PROGRESSION OF THE  
FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH HAS SOME PRETTY  
BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES. WE START ON TUESDAY WITH  
STOUT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS  
THE MIDWEST WITH A CUT OFF PIECE OF A TUTT THE THE EAST OF THE CWA.  
THIS WILL DRAW A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA, BRINGING WHAT  
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK INTO  
THE AREA. STILL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WITH THIS, WITH  
BETTER SHEAR REMOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND LAPSE RATES/CAPE LOOKING  
MEDIOCRE GIVEN REPEATED ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE PAST  
FEW DAYS.  
 
MODELS, INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLE SUITE, SEEM TO HAVE  
PICKED UP ON SOMETHING WITH EITHER THE SHORTWAVE OR ANTICYCLONIC  
ROSSBY WAVE BREAK OCCURRING BEHIND IT, BECAUSE ALL OF THEM HAVE  
AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH A BIT MORE, DIGGING IT INTO THE SE GOING INTO  
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DO A BETTER JOB OF DRIVING THE FRONT INTO THE  
AREA, WHICH WILL BRING A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRIER SURFACE AIR  
ALONGSIDE PRETTY WARM AIR ALOFT, WHICH WILL STIFLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS LOOKS TO  
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM, WITH A VERY SLOW  
RETURN TO SOME ISOLATED POP CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE  
SLOWLY BRINGS BACK MOISTURE. DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR  
HIGH TEMPS TO RISE A BIT MORE UNDER THE SUMMER SUN, SO HIGHS WILL  
DRIFT BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.  
 
ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE NHC DOES HAVE A 20% AREA  
JUST OFF THE COAST ACROSS THE SE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY  
IN RESPONSE TO SOME GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A  
LOW TO SPIN UP ALONG THE BAROCLINICITY GENERATED BY THE FRONTAL  
SYSTEM AND TAP INTO SOME WARM GULF OR WEST ATLANTIC TEMPS. MODELS DO  
SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF THAT IDEA A BIT WITH THIS RUN, BUT THE  
POSITIONING OF VARIOUS FEATURES WILL PLACE A BIG ROLE IN THIS, SO IT  
BEARS WATCHING FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.  
 
LUSK  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
PATCHY FOG AND SCT 005-006 FT CIGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. LOWEST  
CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ATL SITES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE  
MONITORING TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS LIFT BACK TO LOW  
VFR (3-4 KFT) AROUND 14Z. CALM/VRB WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE  
WEST AT 4-7KTS AFTER 16Z. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN  
BETWEEN 19-24Z.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...  
 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA AND LOW-LEVEL CIGS  
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS  
 
07  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 70 90 71 87 / 20 50 40 90  
ATLANTA 71 89 72 87 / 10 50 40 90  
BLAIRSVILLE 64 85 66 82 / 30 60 40 90  
CARTERSVILLE 70 89 71 87 / 20 60 40 90  
COLUMBUS 71 89 71 87 / 30 60 30 90  
GAINESVILLE 71 88 72 85 / 30 50 40 90  
MACON 71 90 71 87 / 20 60 30 90  
ROME 70 88 71 87 / 20 60 40 90  
PEACHTREE CITY 69 90 70 87 / 10 60 40 90  
VIDALIA 72 90 72 90 / 30 70 30 80  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...96  
LONG TERM....LUSK  
AVIATION...07  
 
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