281  
FXUS62 KFFC 030534  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
134 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO  
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. SEVERE WEATHER NOT  
ANTICIPATED, BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL  
GEORGIA.  
 
- A BIT OF A RESPITE TOMORROW, WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF STORMS IN  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.  
 
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW.  
 
FORECAST:  
 
COMPARED TO SOME OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS, WE FINALLY HAVE A RELATIVELY  
TAME FORECAST ON STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE DAY CLOUD PHASE  
DISTINCTION SHOWS BROAD CU FIELD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT IS  
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF GLACIATION. A FEW UPDRAFTS HAVE STARTED TO  
POKE THROUGH THE CAP INTO THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG THE FAR EASTERN  
EDGES OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE BORDER IN AL, AND EXPECTATION IS  
THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
POP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED IN CENTRAL GEORGIA AS MOISTURE IS POOLED  
AHEAD OF THE MOSTLY STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY SITTING APPROXIMATELY  
ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THAT FRONT, SKIES HAVE MOSTLY  
CLEARED OUTSIDE A FEW CU, AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL  
REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY  
BE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS OF NE GA, WHERE A FEW STORMS  
MAY WANDER INTO THE AREA THANKS TO MOISTURE REMAINING A BIT MORE  
POOLED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.  
 
ALOFT, THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE FRONT INITIALLY INTO THE AREA  
HAS PROGRESSED OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. TOMORROW, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TONIGHT THE  
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH, AND WILL BE  
REINFORCED BY THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL  
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TOMORROW, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST  
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS  
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TOMORROW, RELATIVELY  
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND BRING TEMPS TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS  
MUCH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE  
NORTH TO UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH DAY.  
 
LUSK  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE TEMPS RISE  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT RAIN CHANCES  
BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH AN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE  
MS VALLEY AND TROUGHING JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO FLORIDA  
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTH OF GEORGIA. OVERALL DRY AIR  
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD  
TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (15% OR LESS) THROUGH  
SATURDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO AUGUSTA  
SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO 20-35% DUE TO SEABREEZE  
ACTIVITY/THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.  
SUNDAY IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS  
ALL TO DO WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM THAT NHC  
NOW HAS A 40% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON. MODEL TO MODEL RUN HAS  
BEGUN TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER WHERE THIS LOW WILL MEANDER  
BUT OVERALL STILL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE  
FAVORING THE LOW PUSHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD  
TO A DRIER START TO THE WEEKEND AS WE WOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF  
THIS AREA, BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW MODELS TRYING TO INDICATE THAT  
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD PUSH INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/SC PEAK  
INTENSITY FOR ANY OF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LOW END SO NOT  
EXPECTING REALLY ANY IMPACTS BUT IF IT TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE  
WESTERLY TRACK COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE AREA.  
HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES ~30-40% FOR THE AREA TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THIS SOLUTION.  
 
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE ON THE  
UPPER LEVELS AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY  
DRAGGING WITH IT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASED ON  
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT ULTIMATELY COULD SEE THIS CHANGE  
UP IF TIMING BECOMES LATER. HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE LONG TERM LOOK  
TO TOP OUT AT THE MID 90S BY SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO THE UPPER  
80S TO LOW 90S UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPS INCREASE AGAIN AND  
MOISTURE RETURNS.  
 
HERNANDEZ  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A  
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FEW TO BKN CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
CLEARING BETWEEN 03-07Z. AT ALL THE NORTHERN SITES, NW WINDS  
4-8KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE/NE BETWEEN 14-20Z BEFORE SWITCHING  
BACK TO THE NW AROUND 00Z AT LESS THAN 5KTS. FEW TO SCT CU MAY  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCN/KCSG.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.  
 
07  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
ATHENS 70 92 72 93 / 10 10 0 10  
ATLANTA 72 92 74 93 / 0 10 0 10  
BLAIRSVILLE 62 86 64 88 / 0 10 0 20  
CARTERSVILLE 67 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 10  
COLUMBUS 70 94 74 95 / 10 10 0 20  
GAINESVILLE 70 91 72 91 / 0 10 0 10  
MACON 71 93 72 94 / 10 20 0 20  
ROME 68 91 68 93 / 0 10 0 10  
PEACHTREE CITY 68 92 71 93 / 0 10 0 10  
VIDALIA 72 91 74 93 / 40 40 20 30  
 
 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...LUSK  
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ  
AVIATION...07  
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