829
FXUS62 KFFC 040543
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF
I-75 ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR.
- MOISTURE AND SOME ISOLATED STORM CHANCES RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TOMORROW.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO ESCAPE
THE HEAT FOR THE 4TH.
FORECAST:
CURRENT DAY CLOUD PHASE RGB SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FAIR WEATHER CU
FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. IN
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA, GLACIATION IS EVIDENT AND A FEW UPDRAFTS HAVE
MANAGED TO BREAK THE CAP AND BRIEFLY TAKE OFF, BECOMING TALL ENOUGH
FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. SO FAR THESE HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY RUN
OF THE MILL STORMS, AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE
FOR MOST STORMS THAT DO FORM IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE NOTABLE
SURFACE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE, MLCAPE DOES REVEAL HOW DRIER AIR IS
LIKELY IMPACTING THE UPDRAFTS, WHERE CAPE VALUES FALL BY AS MUCH AS
1500 J/KG COMPARED TO THE SBCAPE VALUES. STILL, SOME POCKETS OF
2000+ J/KG MLCAPE DO MEAN THAT A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THESE AREAS. WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SHEAR, WILL BE HARD TO GET MORE THAN THAT.
TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG A BIT ACROSS THAT AREA
BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TOMORROW. NOTABLY WITHIN THAT
SYSTEM IS AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR THE
GENERATION OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW IN THE LONG TERM OVER THE
WEEKEND (SEE BELOW), BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO
KEEP OUR CURRENT STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. MOISTURE REMAINS
LACKING AT THE SURFACE TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING AND LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND EVEN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. STORM CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO
WHERE THE BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE DOWN INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, RUNNING IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION, WHERE THOSE INCLINED TO DO SO MAY FIND SOME ESCAPE INTO
THE 80S (OR POSSIBLY LOWER, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR UP YOU FIND
YOURSELF). LOWS IN THE MORNING ON THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE METRO FOR THOSE TAKING PART IN THE PEACHTREE ROAD RACE.
FOR THE EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL AFTER SUNSET, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S BY 9PM ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, AND MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON
STORMS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL LIKELY HAVE COME TO AN END OR BE
WINDING DOWN BY THAT TIME.
LUSK
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
- UNCERTAINTY WITH TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- INCREASED MOISTURE LEADS TO INCREASED HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK (100-103).
DISCUSSION:
LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH AN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE
MS VALLEY AND TROUGHING JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO FLORIDA
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTH OF GEORGIA. THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD A TROPICAL LOW HAS A 60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL
STEER OUR RAIN CHANCES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. MOISTURE DOES BEGIN
TO RETURN SUNDAY AND THUS RAIN CHANCES PUSH NORTHWARD AND RISE.
AFTER SUNDAY, SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT MODELS
SHOW THE TROPICAL LOW PUSHING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WOULD
PUT AREAS NORTH OF MACON ON THE DRIER SIDE BUT WITH THE LOW NOT YET
DEVELOPED, COULD SEE DEVIATION IN THIS PROJECTION. IF/WHEN THE LOW
IS ABLE TO FORM, MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE WEAKER SIDE AND REALLY ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED RAINFALL AND
MAYBE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH. HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
~30-40% FOR THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SOLUTION.
PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THIS NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
INTO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING WITH IT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE PARENT LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE 45-50% RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY BUT BY THURSDAY SHOULD SEE
MORE OF A SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE BUT STILL KEPT ~60%.
HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE LONG TERM LOOK INCREASE WITH WEDNESDAY AT
95-98 OVER EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE, EXPECTING TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE 100-103
DEGREE RANGE AT THIS TIME.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PRIMARILY FEW-SCT
CU AT 4-6KFT. WINDS INITIALLY CALM TO VRB WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
ENE/E AT 5-10KTS BY 12-13Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 93 71 91 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 74 94 74 93 / 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 65 87 64 87 / 0 20 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 69 94 71 93 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 95 73 93 / 0 10 0 20
GAINESVILLE 72 92 71 90 / 0 0 0 10
MACON 73 95 72 91 / 10 10 0 20
ROME 68 93 70 92 / 0 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 71 94 71 92 / 0 0 0 10
VIDALIA 74 93 73 88 / 10 20 10 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...96
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