683
FXUS62 KFFC 031744
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
(15-40% CHANCES) ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO INCH BACK TOWARD (AND ABOVE)
SEASONAL NORMS, TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION:
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY, WEAKENING THE ANTECEDENT WEDGE AIRMASS/COOL
DOME IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE INTRUSION OF WARMER, SLIGHTLY
MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR (DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE 60S).
THIS COMBINED WITH IMPROVED FORCING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVES WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LOW-END CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION RELEGATED PRIMARILY TO NORTH GEORGIA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS (15-30% CHANCES) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING TODAY -- GENERALLY ALONG THE GA/TN BORDER AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA -- WITH CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MIXING IN WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. VERY SIMILAR TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW, ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE (20-40%
CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON) OWING TO BOLSTERED LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH REBOUNDING MOISTURE,
TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TODAY AND WARMING BY JUST A FEW DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY, INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
96
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (~20% OR LESS) UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED.
- A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A COOL-DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTING A STOUT, SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER CANADA, WITH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
PARENT LOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THE RESULT HERE IN GEORGIA WILL BE
WEAKLY-FORCED, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT MOST, WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA LIKELY REMAINING RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOWER 90S TO MID-90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
80S DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN AND ASCENT
ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 20% TO 30% POPS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO IT. THERE
ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER (MID-
/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MEAGER) BUT A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY
IF ANY DISTURBANCES DEVELOP ALOFT AMID THE TROUGHING PATTERN AND
SUPPORT LOCALIZED INCREASES IN SHEAR AND/OR INSTABILITY.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SOME SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PRESENT.
SHRA ARE NOTED TO WEST OF RYY AND FTY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE MAY
PROGRESS NEAR OR ACROSS THESE AIRPORTS WITH VERY MINOR RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, SCT CU
FIELD IS IN PLACE AND WILL BE THROUGH EVENING. WINDS HAVE MOVED TO
WEST SIDE OR GONE VRB AT MOST ALL METRO TAF SITES. THESE ARE
LIGHT, 3-7 KTS. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GO CALM TO VERY LIGHT
(GENERALLY < 4 KTS), AND BEST WEST AGAIN TOMORROW AT 4-8 KTS. NO
CIG/VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED. SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND SHRA IMPACTS
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEANING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
FOR ANY IMPACTS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM SHRA/TSRA TIMING, HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 84 64 86 66 / 10 10 10 0
ATLANTA 84 67 88 69 / 0 10 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 76 59 78 61 / 30 30 40 10
CARTERSVILLE 85 64 88 67 / 20 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 89 68 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 82 64 86 66 / 10 20 20 10
MACON 86 65 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 84 64 87 66 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 85 65 88 67 / 0 10 10 0
VIDALIA 87 64 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...LUSK
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