046
FXUS62 KFFC 121047
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
647 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
- FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, COMBINING
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TO PROMOTE CONTINUED OR WORSENING
DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST. CAMS ARE INDICATING THAT RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW TODAY BUT SOME DO HINT AT A BAND OF
LIGHT SHOWERS TO REACH INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
BEHIND THIS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
TWO- THIRDS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WORSENING DROUGHT. DID ELECT TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRIPE OF UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY ALONG I-85 AND ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW BUT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN AL. WITH THIS AND THE EXPECTED PERSISTENT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER ALSO ELECTED TO LOWER MAX TS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS ON THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN
LOWER TOMORROW WITH A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS NEAR 80. WINDS HAVE
TURNED NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL FURTHER ENFORCE THE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
LONGTERM OUTLOOK CAN REALLY BE SUMMED UP IN ONE WORD, "RIDGE". UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PINCHES OFF THE EAST COAST TROUGH AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DRIVE CUT OFF
LOW SOUTH, AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH, THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP IMPACTS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERTICALLY
STACKED NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK WILL KEEP PWATS AT OR BELOW
1". OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER
GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE ON RIDGE BREAKDOWN THIS FORECASTER IS
HESITANT TO EXPECT ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN. PREPARE FOR CONTINUED OR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
HOWEVER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE THINGS QUITE TOLERABLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA PUSHING IN
CLOSER TO KATL INTO THE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE EAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 76 55 79 54 / 10 0 0 0
ATLANTA 78 56 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 73 50 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 78 51 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 80 55 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 78 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 76 56 81 54 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 80 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 79 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 70 59 81 57 / 50 30 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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