149
FXUS62 KFFC 141738
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. POTENTIAL RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL OFF EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, DID BLEND IN NBM10 INTO THE
DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. WITH THE PATTERN
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TEMPS WILL
EASILY WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AT ~10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TOMORROW WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S (~10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND CLEAR SKIES.
MORNING TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
TWO MORNINGS WHICH IS STILL ~5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY WITH RIDGING BRINGING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. A FEATURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AS IT CIRCLES THE UPPER HIGH OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL BE IMPORTANT IN CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO MID WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DRIVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE-TROUGH
WAVE PATTERN AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW EJECTION BACK
OVER THE GULF STATES. THE CUTOFF LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DO A FEW
INTERESTING THINGS. THE FIRST IS PRIMING OF THE PRE-TROUGH
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND PWATS NEAR 1.5" ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD BE NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS SHOULD
THIS OCCUR. SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING FROM THE DEEP TROUGH COULD ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE A LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER IN
THIS CASE THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE QUITE DEEP ENOUGH FOR IDEAL SUPPORT.
THE OTHER RESULT WOULD BE CONSTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH AND THE CUT-OFF LOW. WHILE MOISTURE WOULD BE MORE LIMITED IN
THIS SCENARIO, SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD BE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER AND
SLOWER TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG, WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IN A "PERFECT" AMPLIFICATION PATTERN.
AT THIS TIME, IT REMAINS A BIT EARLY TO REALLY SAY WHICH IS MORE
LIKELY GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN CUT-OFF LOW MOTION. WHAT CAN BE
DETERMINED IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND MAY (FINGERS CROSSED) HELP DROUGHT CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
CLEAR SKIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE NE BUT THEY WILL TURN TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN BACK TO THE NE BY 15-17Z WED.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL STAY 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 83 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 76 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 82 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 85 58 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 82 56 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 83 57 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 83 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 83 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 83 59 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...01
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