512
FXUS62 KFFC 160529
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
129 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BRIEFLY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- FOLLOWING THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING SW OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND
SWEEPING THROUGH GA THURSDAY. ONLY EXPECTING SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS BUT IT WILL ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE STATES TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND THEN INTO THE SERN U.S. BY FRI MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL
BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS FRI BUT THATS ABOUT
IT FOR THE SHORT TERM . TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 70S AND 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE STORY THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND
TROUGHING DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS GEORGIA. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI-
SAT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK:
BY LATE SATURDAY, THE PATTERN WILL START TO SHIFT AS THE RIDGE
GETS KICKED OUT OF THE AREA BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGHING PUSHING
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL US. IN RESPONSE, LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER
GEORGIA WILL START TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
STRENGTHENING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE MS AND TN VALLEYS. THE SURGE OF SW FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE, WHICH COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM
THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH
GEORGIA FROM THE W/NW, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND UNTIL IT
PASSES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. THERE IS STILL NOTABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS, BUT DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE
AREA, A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THAT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BECOME CLEARER IN THE
COMING DAYS. ONE THING WE DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN, IS THAT ANY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM, (WHICH LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 0.25"-0.5"
OR LESS), WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, USHERING IN DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD MAY BE THE COOLEST WE'VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MON AND TUE MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER TUESDAY MORNING, AS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON THE STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GA TO REMAIN DRY
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL. HOWEVER, IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
ANOTHER SKC DAY TODAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NE BY ~07-08Z
BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTERLY BY 00Z. SPEEDS REMAIN AT 7KT OR LESS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW END MVFR VSBYS FOR KMCN
FROM 10-12Z THIS MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 51 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 56 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 49 73 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 55 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 53 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 54 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 54 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 54 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 53 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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