683
FXUS62 KFFC 161852
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 249 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SAT INTO SUN, WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH.
- A SECOND, WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS
A DRY BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SW THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BUT ALL
WERE SEEING FROM IT IT ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12KT
RANGE. THIS FRONT IS USHERING IN THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS RIDGE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRI AFTERNOON THEN PUSH OFF
THE GA/SC/NC COAST BY SAT MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING IN SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS FRI BUT THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS GEORGIA REMAINS
UNDER THE GRASP OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FLEETING OFF TO THE EAST OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE IS BEING PUSHED OUT BY OUR NEXT
SOURCE OF RAIN, A BROAD AND DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, LOW TO MID-
LEVEL WINDS OVER GEORGIA WILL START TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY, STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A STOUT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH SHOOTS ACROSS THE
MS AND TN VALLEYS. THE SURGE OF SW FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE, WHICH COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE NEARBY
SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH ACROSS
GEORGIA FROM THE W/NW, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL
IT PASSES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN. THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS SETUP WILL PLAY OUT,
BUT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS IN THE AREA, A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THAT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BECOME
CLEARER IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ONE THING WE DO HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN, IS THAT ANY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM, (WHICH LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY 0.25"-0.5" OR LESS), WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN
A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BE THE COOLEST
WE'VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S FOR MON AND TUE MORNINGS. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN US, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT COULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO PARTS OF NORTH GA FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT
WILL BE A REINFORCEMENT OF A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS THAT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO
FOR WED AND THU, WITH TEMPS BEING COOLER THAN MON/TUE (FINALLY
BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR!). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. TEMPS WOULD BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THAT IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE E TO NE BUT HAVE SEEN SOME
NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE ELEVATED WITH WITH SPEEDS IN
THE 8-12KT RANGE. WILL SEE SPEEDS DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS WILL THEN PICK BACK UP FRI BUT SHOULD
STAY 8KT OR LESS THROUGH FRI EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 52 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 57 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 49 73 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 55 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 57 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 54 76 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 53 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 54 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 54 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 53 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...01
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page