964
FXUS62 KFFC 130552
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1252 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
- STEADY WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS 8 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, SHOULD PREVAIL BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING REMAINS
HIGH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLDER AIRMASS
IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. AS A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, IT WILL DISPLACE THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS GEORGIA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH, WHICH IS BRINGING MORE MOIST AND WARM
AIR FROM THE GULF. DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY RESPONDED IN KIND, RISING
FROM THE 20S IN THE EARLY MORNING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT
THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WITHIN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH, TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THEIR RISING TREND. ASIDE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA, HIGHS WILL LARGELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER WILL
MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ADVANCES EASTWARD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. AFTER LOW TEMPERATURES START THE MORNING
IN THE UPPER 30S IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CWA, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO LARGELY THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S,
WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
TOMORROW. A FEW LOCATIONS IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA COULD SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR JUST BELOW 25% IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA (WHERE
THE DRIEST AIR WILL REMAIN AND WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST),
THOUGH FOR ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE MOST EACH DAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
PRIMARILY DRY & MILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE PASSAGE OF
A POORLY DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY COULD PRODUCE A SLIGHT
DIP IN TEMPERATURES, EARLY IN THE WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH IT WILL BE GO
UNNOTICED BY MOST, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 8 TO 14
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
THIS TO EQUATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MILD, WITH NO WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMER
WEATHER IS HIGH DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS.
A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE REGION (PW VALUES BELOW 1")
WILL GREATLY RESTRAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. FOR THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY THIS SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEM, AND ANY RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE
AND DURATION (15% CHANCE OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS). ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT DECREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL. FOR NOW THE KEY THING TO
NOTE IS THAT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS PROBABLE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
FRIDAY (FAVORED BY ~80% OF THE GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS). JUST GIVE THE
ENSEMBLES A COUPLE OF DAYS TO NARROW DOWN THE TIME WINDOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MVFR VSBY THIS
MORNING (< 20%), BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE IN THIS
TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE FROM NW, 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, GOING
LIGHT TO NEAR CALM AT MANY SITES OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 40 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 45 71 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 37 67 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 39 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 42 75 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 42 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 41 73 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 41 75 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 41 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 42 74 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...LUSK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page