061
FXUS62 KFFC 152340
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN
JEOPARDY BY MIDWEEK.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT, NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIR WX CU AND HIGH CIRRUS BLANKET MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA
AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 70S AREAWIDE (UPPER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS). MOVING INTO SUNDAY, A MOSTLY DRY FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND A LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD GIVEN CLOUD COVER INCREASING
AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER,
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
FROPA. MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SETTLING
IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
PERHAPS UNSURPRISINGLY, THE TREND OF WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AT MOST A
SMALL GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. AT
THE ONSET OF THE WEEK, A RENEWED VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ENVELOP THE
AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH
DEWPOINTS TANKING INTO THE 20S (OR LOWER), WIDESPREAD MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15-20% RANGE SHOULD LEAD TO SLAM
DUNK FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY,
CURRENT LIGHT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WOULD PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE ONLY PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REASONABLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN NORTH GEORGIA TO LOWER 70S IN MIDDLE
GEORGIA AND LOWS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
BEYOND MONDAY, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IN
FAR NORTH GEORGIA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
LATE WEEK. AMID THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PUTTING DAILY RECORD HIGHS WITHIN
REACH.
FINALLY, REGARDING THAT GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR SOME RAINFALL, A TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
INITIATE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEKEND. EVEN SO, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL
QPF (PROBABILITIES REMAIN LARGELY <50% FOR EVEN 0.50" TOTAL QPF IN
FAR NORTH GA THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER FOR AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH), SO A DROUGHT-DENTING RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
JUNCTURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD, WINDS W OVERNIGHT 5 TO 10 KTS. FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL ALONG
FRONT. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF NW TOMORROW MORNING SUSTAINED AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MVFR TMRW.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 57 75 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 57 74 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 53 65 33 60 / 20 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 56 74 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 77 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 58 73 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 53 77 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 58 76 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 55 75 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 53 79 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SM
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