290
FXUS62 KFFC 160545
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN
JEOPARDY BY MIDWEEK.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT, NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIR WX CU AND HIGH CIRRUS BLANKET MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA
AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 70S AREAWIDE (UPPER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS). MOVING INTO SUNDAY, A MOSTLY DRY FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND A LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD GIVEN CLOUD COVER INCREASING
AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER,
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
FROPA. MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SETTLING
IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
PERHAPS UNSURPRISINGLY, THE TREND OF WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AT MOST A
SMALL GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. AT
THE ONSET OF THE WEEK, A RENEWED VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ENVELOP THE
AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH
DEWPOINTS TANKING INTO THE 20S (OR LOWER), WIDESPREAD MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15-20% RANGE SHOULD LEAD TO SLAM
DUNK FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY,
CURRENT LIGHT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WOULD PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE ONLY PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REASONABLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN NORTH GEORGIA TO LOWER 70S IN MIDDLE
GEORGIA AND LOWS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
BEYOND MONDAY, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IN
FAR NORTH GEORGIA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
LATE WEEK. AMID THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PUTTING DAILY RECORD HIGHS WITHIN
REACH.
FINALLY, REGARDING THAT GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR SOME RAINFALL, A TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
INITIATE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEKEND. EVEN SO, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL
QPF (PROBABILITIES REMAIN LARGELY <50% FOR EVEN 0.50" TOTAL QPF IN
FAR NORTH GA THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER FOR AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH), SO A DROUGHT-DENTING RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
JUNCTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS DAYBREAK THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR, MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF
ON THIS BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AT THE
ATL SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 42 67 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 44 67 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 33 60 38 66 / 0 0 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 40 65 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 42 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 44 71 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 40 68 42 77 / 0 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 42 68 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 46 71 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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