424
FXUS62 KFFC 161139
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN
JEOPARDY BY MIDWEEK.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT, NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
DRY, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THAT THE FAR REGIONS OF NE
GEORGIA COULD RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN ON MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
PLEASE MONITOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNEVENTFUL FOR THE MOST PART WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THE WEEKEND. ON
MONDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY, THE ONLY REAL
INDICATION THAT A FRONT PASSED THROUGH WILL BE NW WINDS AND LOWS
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BY TUESDAY THE WINDS SHOULD
TURN MORE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
MORE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AS A LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHES IN. SMALL IMPULSES IN THE
FLOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LEAD TO LIMITED (<10-15%) CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA IF ENOUGH ENERGY IS ABLE TO SNEAK
DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AS THE
IMPULSES REMAIN CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY AREA WITH STRONG RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WHEN WE COULD SEE A
SEMBLANCE OF CHANGE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST PUSHES EASTWARD THERE WILL BE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS A BIT SCATTERED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. QPF
VALUES HAVE LOWERED EVER SO SLIGHTLY INTO THE 1-1.5" RANGE WHICH IS
INDICATING A DRYER SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT PRECIP
WILL AFFECT THE AREA BUT TIMING DOES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW THE RIDGE IS ABLE TO BREAK DOWN. NORTH GEORGIA HAS A
HIGHER CHANCE TO RECEIVE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL THAN CENTRAL GEORGIA T
THIS TIME.
HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. INCLUDED A TEMPO
FOR MVFR BEGINNING AT 12Z THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE A MAJORITY OF
THESE OBS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE METRO AREA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS HIGH.
ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 74 45 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 65 34 61 39 / 10 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 74 39 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 77 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 73 42 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 78 44 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 77 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 42 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 79 46 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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