933
FXUS62 KFFC 171149
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 648 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR DAILY RECORD HIGHS AROUND MID WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH GA AROUND MIDWEEK WITH ANY
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
A BRIEF PAUSE ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY, AFTER A
COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LATE YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIC 60S
ARE EXPECTED. VERY DRY AIR HAS FILTERED DOWN FROM THE NW. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND AS
A RESULT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. HIGHS WILL BOUNCE
BACK TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
50S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW AND IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF THE CWA.
NO SIGN OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM, AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO FIND ANY
IN THE LONG TERM. WINDS WILL REMAIN W/NW THROUGH THE LONG TERM, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO EASE SOME BY TOMORROW AS A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS ESTABLISHED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
AS WE PICK UP ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN SEEMS TO GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE OVERALL FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IMPULSE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED OVER NORTHERN GA.
CAMS HAVE BEGUN INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR LIMITED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DID LIMIT CHANCES TO 30%
FOR THE MOST PART TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF FORCING NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA.
FOLLOWING THIS IMPULSE, RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WE'LL ACTUALLY BE ON RECORD WATCH FOR DAY TIME HIGHS
THESE DAYS WITH MANY ALL 4 SITES EITHER FORECASTED TO BREAK THE
RECORD OR TIE/APPROACH THE RECORD. TEMPS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES ALTHOUGH
ENSEMBLES STILL REMAIN DIVERSE IN TIMING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
LIKELY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND HAVE INCREASED
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES. WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORMS, IT WILL
REALLY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO WAIT
AND SEE AS THE CAMS COME IN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY OUT. QPF VALUES
ARE BETWEEN 0.5-1" THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 00Z. SKC IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 67 40 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 67 45 73 57 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 39 66 50 / 0 0 0 40
CARTERSVILLE 66 41 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 72 45 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 67 43 70 54 / 0 0 0 10
MACON 71 40 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 68 42 77 57 / 0 0 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 68 41 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 73 42 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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