398
FXUS62 KFFC 180925
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
425 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 420 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY, ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL DAILY RECORD HIGHS LIKELY (70% CHANCE) BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
- LIGHT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN NORTH GEORGIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
REGION WIDE ON SATURDAY, BUT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE ONGOING
DROUGHT SITUATION ARE UNLIKELY AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR STILL
LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AS A
RESULT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GEORGIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO END THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AND BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA ON
TUESDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
FOLLOWING THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S TO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE'LL ACTUALLY BE ON RECORD WATCH FOR DAY TIME HIGHS THESE DAYS WITH
ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES EITHER FORECASTED TO BREAK THE RECORD OR
TIE/APPROACH THE RECORD. TEMPS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TIMING HAS COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND RAINFALL
BUT ENSEMBLES STILL REMAIN DIVERGENT ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL/MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD
FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LIKELY SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND HAVE INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WHERE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES.
WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORMS, IT WILL REALLY BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE AS THE CAMS COME IN
HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY OUT. QPF VALUES ARE UP TO 0.5" THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SO NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY MEANS, BUT NORTH GEORGIA IS
LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WHEREAS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE
UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME UNFORTUNATELY.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS WE WILL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO RAIN
CHANCES IN THE LOW END RANGE AT THE MOMENT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BUT CPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR INCREASED RAINFALL INTO THIS
TIME PERIOD SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS THE WEEK PUSHES ONWARD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP ON THE SE SIDE
AROUND 14Z BEFORE MAKING A QUICK SHIFT TO THE SW BY 18Z. VIS AND
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 70 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 72 56 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 65 49 70 51 / 0 30 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 73 55 77 56 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 77 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 69 54 76 55 / 0 10 0 0
MACON 75 50 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 76 58 80 56 / 0 20 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 74 53 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 77 53 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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