513
FXUS62 KFFC 181841
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
141 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL DAILY RECORD HIGHS LIKELY (70% CHANCE) BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
- LIGHT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REGION WIDE SATURDAY, BUT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE ONGOING
DROUGHT SITUATION ARE UNLIKELY AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT & WEDNESDAY MORNING:
DON'T GET TO EXCITED BY THE SECTION DESCRIPTOR, IF YOU LIVE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 RAIN IS NOT SOMETHING YOU SHOULD ANTICIPATE. FOR THOSE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 (MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS) A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONT MAY GENERATE SOME MODEST
RAINFALL BETWEEN 10 PM TONIGHT AND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES (50-60%) ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM. MUCAPE IN THE
200 TO 500 J/KG RANGE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INSTABILITY BEING ELEVATED. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. PEAK RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF NORTH GEORGIA WILL SEE LOWER AMOUNTS (0.10 INCHES OR
LESS).
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY:
DESPITE SOME MORNING CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN HEAVILY
TOWARDS ANOMALOUS WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS
THAT ARE 12 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST,
AND THEY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS AFTERNOONS UPDATE. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO UPPER 70S IN NORTH GEORGIA AND LOWER 80S IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PLACES LIKE ATLANTA AND ATHENS SHOULD BE WITH IN 2
TO 4 DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RECORD HIGH IN
ATLANTA FOR THE DATE IS 80 DEGREES FROM 1942, AND THE NBM GIVES THE
CITY A 28% CHANCE TO REACH OR EXCEED THIS VALUE. WE'LL PROBABLY NEED
MORNING CLOUD COVER TO BE LIMITED TO HAVE A CHANCE. MACON AND
COLUMBUS SHOULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS AS WELL, THOUGH THE ODDS
SUGGEST WE WON'T BREAK THESE RECORDS EITHER (34% CHANCE IN MACON 20%
CHANCE IN COLUMBUS).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIODS START OFF WITH WEAK RIDGING KEEPING THINGS DRY
BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
SC/GA COAST KEEPS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THU
AND FRI. WE WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR RECORD BREAKING DAY TIME
HIGHS, WITH ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES (ATL, AHN, CSG, MCN) EITHER
FORECASTED TO BREAK THE RECORD OR TIE/APPROACH THE RECORD. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
BY THU AFTERNOON...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW CENTERED DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN
TX AND OK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS RIVER VALLEY THU NIGHT WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE KNOCKING ON NW GEORGIA'S DOORSTEP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE FRI. WARM MOIST SW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE THOSE DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NW GA AROUND MID DAY
SLOWLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE
SHOULD MAINLY SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE REALLY NOT THAT GREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ANTICIPATING SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THINGS CLEAR
OUT AGAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
QPF VALUES ARE IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75" WITH THE FRI/SAT SYSTEM WITH
NORTH GEORGIA LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS FRONT DOES DRY
OUT A BIT AS IT MOVES SE, SO CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ONLY SEE 0.1" OR
LESS AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AT ALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS (FEW TO SCT AOA 4000 FT AGL & UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS DURING THIS
TIME RANGE WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH (170 TO 210 DEGREES) AT 2 TO 8
KT. MVFR CEILINGS (1500 TO 3000 FT AGL) WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY
OCCUR IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN
06Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS (3 TO 10 KT FROM 250 TO 290
DEGREES) WILL DEVELOP FOR ALL AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS OF THE KATL TAF.
ALBRIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 52 77 54 78 / 10 20 0 0
ATLANTA 56 77 58 79 / 10 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 49 70 51 72 / 60 30 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 56 76 55 79 / 30 20 0 10
COLUMBUS 53 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 54 75 55 77 / 30 30 0 0
MACON 50 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 59 79 56 80 / 60 20 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 54 79 56 81 / 10 10 0 0
VIDALIA 51 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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