823
FXUS62 KFFC 191132
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL DAILY RECORD HIGHS LIKELY (70% CHANCE) BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
- LIGHT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NORTH GEORGIA AND THEN AGAIN REGION WIDE SATURDAY, BUT
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION ARE UNLIKELY AS A
RESULT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS CREATED A WEAK
INSTABILITY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRY AIR
DECREASING THE CHANCES OF ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
MOISTURE THAT WILL PUT AN END TO RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
MAKE IT FEEL LESS DRY OUT THERE, BUT WITH IT COMES STEADILY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TOMORROW
WHICH COULD BREAK A FEW RECORDS AT OUR CLIMATE SITES. TEMPS WILL
RUN BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL; A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
WITH RIDGING SETTLING IN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO START
OFF THE LONGTERM, TEMPS WILL EASILY BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE'LL ACTUALLY BE ON RECORD WATCH FOR DAY TIME HIGHS THESE
DAYS WITH ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES EITHER FORECASTED TO BREAK THE RECORD
OR TIE/APPROACH THE RECORD. TEMPS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
PUSHING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND HAVE INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES. THE CAMS SHOULD
BEGIN COMING INTO TIMEFRAME FOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY TODAY
WHICH WILL GIVE US A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING. AT THIS POINT ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKER AS WELL AS WEAKER INSTABILITY. QPF VALUES ARE UP TO
0.5" THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY MEANS, BUT
NORTH GEORGIA IS LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WHEREAS CENTRAL
GEORGIA WILL BE UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME
UNFORTUNATELY.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS WE WILL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO RAIN
CHANCES IN THE LOW END RANGE AT THE MOMENT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BUT CPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR INCREASED RAINFALL INTO THIS
TIME PERIOD SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS THE WEEK PUSHES ONWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
SCT MVFR DECK AND VCSH IS POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GUSTING TO 20KTS AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE CALMING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW ON VCSH CHANCES.
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 77 54 76 57 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 77 58 78 60 / 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 70 50 72 54 / 30 0 10 30
CARTERSVILLE 77 55 78 58 / 10 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 80 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 74 55 76 58 / 10 0 0 20
MACON 81 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 79 57 80 59 / 10 0 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 78 57 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 83 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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